Cliff Lee – A drop off from last year’s CY Young award winner was expected, but he has been brutal through the season’s first two games, allowing 11 earned runs in ten innings of work. Lee has a solid K rate of 1, and it is good to see that his improvement in getting strikeouts has translated over from last season when he had a career high k rate of .76. However, despite the very solid K rate, Lee’s K/BB ratio is just 2 versus last season’s 5. The reason being is that Lee has been unable, and most likely will continue to be unable, to repeat his stinginess in giving out walks. Last season, Lee walked only 1.37 batters per 9 IP, well below his career mark of 2.69. Also, even though, as stated before, Lee’s K rate improved to .76 last season, the 78.3% LOB% he posted last season will be unsustainable again with that K rate. Another disturbing early trend is that Lee has allowed almost twice as many fly balls as ground balls through the season’s first two games. Along with his amazing K/BB ratio last season, a huge part of Lee’s success was his 1.31 GB/FB ratio, which was also way out of line with his career numbers. Obviously it is early, but Lee will have a dramatic drop off in production if he is unable to match the ground ball and walk rates he posted last season, as has been the case so far. Was last year a fluke or did Lee develop into a different type of pitcher? At this point the former appears to be the correct answer.
Scott Downs – If and seemingly when BJ Ryan loses the closer’s role for the Blue Jays, Scott Downs appears poised to fill that role. He saved 5 games last season for the Jays, sporting an impressive 1.78 ERA. Downs, if given the roll, could definitely be effective due to a decent K/9 ratio of 7.26 but more so because of an outstanding GB/FB rate of 2.93. Do not expect a sub-2 ERA again, though. With that K rate being, but not amazing, Downs is extremely unlucky to repeat his 86.6 LOB% and especially his .264 BABIP (previous career best was .291 over 5 seasons). An ERA above 3 is more likely, but it certainly does not mean Downs cannot be an effective closer.
Miguel Cabrera – A key to Miguel Cabrera’s early success has been patience. Heading into yesterday’s game, Cabrera had 3 walks and no strikeouts. Last season, Cabrera posted an EYE of .44, his worst since his rookie season. Also heading into yesterday’s game, Cabrera had swung at only 15.4% of pitched outside the strike zone. Last season, Cabrera swung at a career worst 34.2% of pitches outside the strike zone. Clearly, Cabrera was trying a bit too hard at the plate last season, resulting in his worst ever average. This year, Cabrera seems more comfortable and is not pressing as much and the result could be his best season as a professional.
Alexei Ramirez – Ramirez broke out of a mini early season slump today. He entered the day hitless in 13 at bats, but ended the day with his first 2 hits of the season, which also netted him his first 2 RBI. Ramirez, kind of like Chris Davis, is a young talented player entering his second season, but is also a player prone to down stretches due to poor plate discipline. Ramirez is not a very patient hitter (3.6 BB/9 last season, .30 EYE), and it has shown so far this year as he has struck out 6 times without taking any walks. Ramirez will provide good power for a MI, but I fear he is a batting average risk due to his poor EYE and below average LD% (16.6% last season). Both of those factors make him a risk for an unlucky singles average.
Jeremy Guthrie - Guthrie won for the second consecutive outing to begin the year. He has now given up just 3 ER in 12 IP against two formidable divisional opponents, the Rays and the Yankees. I do expect Guthrie to regress, though, both from his early season success and last year’s low ERA. The reason being is Guthrie’s inability to improve his K rate. He only struck out 5.66 batters per 9 last season, yet posted a 3.63 ERA thanks to a 76.7 LOB% and .267 BABIP. Expect both those numbers to rise this year. In his 12 IP this season, Guthrie has just 5 K’s and unless he improves on that he will not be able to keep shutting down the good hitting lineups in his division. Expect Guthrie to wind up with an ERA over 4 this season.
