Clayton Kershaw:
Typically 5 innings of 2 hit ball, allowing just 1 ER would be something we’d be rejoicing about, but with young Clayton Kershaw the bar is set pretty high. Last year Kershaw was able to post strong numbers in 2 of the 3 pitching indicators we love to focus on so much, with a 48% GB Rate (above 50 is elite) and a .93 K Rate; but his one Achilles’ Heel has been command. A .48 BB Rate last year contributed to a 1.50 WHIP and some short stints for the youngster. While the results were a bit better on Thursday, the same control problems persisted as Kershaw walked 4 batters in his 5 innings of work and needed 105 pitches to get through those 5 frames. The good news here is Kershaw showed improved command this spring and while he did walk 4, he threw 62% of his pitches for strikes. Kershaw still left the game in line for his first victory of the season, but his early exit left 4 innings for the Dodgers bullpen to shut down the Padres, a task they couldn’t handle as they surrendered the lead late. While Kershaw figures to take a significant step forward this year, how big that step will be will largely be determined by his control. On Thursday we had some mixed results with Kershaw’s command, but on the whole a start his owners will be pleased with.
Adam LaRoche:
LaRoche was out of the Pirates lineup on Thursday with a stomach virus. Those in daily lineup leagues will want to check lineup postings early tomorrow as Pirates manager John Russell indicated this could be a “couple days” thing. Of course if you’re a LaRoche owner you may want to save a permanent spot on the bench for him until the 2nd half of the season. In one of the more unusual career splits in the majors Adam LaRoche tends to be a replacement level player in the first half of the season (career: .252/.323/.446 line in over 1200 AB’s), while becoming an All Star in the 2nd half of the season (career: .297/.360/.548) in over 1000 AB’s. These aren’t small samples we’re working with here and it’s been consistent in every season. My play with LaRoche over the years has been to allow another owner to hold him for the treacherous 1st half and hope he’s released through those struggles so I can scoop him up right before the all star break, a tactic I highly recommend.
Edwin Encarnacion:
It’s been a relatively quiet start for Edwin Encarnacion, but the peripherals continue to show improvement. Encarnacion, one of my projected breakout players (granted for the 3rd year in a row), now has 5 BB’s in his first 3 games compared to just 2 K’s. Encarnacion’s EYE has been on a slow climb over the last 3 years and at age 26 with rising FB Rates, Slugging %, and EYE, Encarnacion looks primed to build on his 26 HR campaign last season. He’s burned a number of his owners over the last few seasons with his inconsistency and fortunately this provides a nice buying opportunity for those reading between the lines and seeing the improvements. Ryan Zimmerman is the more heralded name for fantasy purposes, but Edwin Encarnacion has the higher upside and is just as likely to reach his potential this season.
Matt Cain:
Cain was outstanding on Thursday as he limited the Brewers to just 1 run on 4 hits and 2 BB’s over 7 innings. He struck-out 5 and showed remarkable command, throwing 68% of his pitches for strikes. Every spring you hear about guys who come into camp in “the best shape of their lives”, but watching Cain on Thursday night you could see the noticeable difference in the weight he’s lost. At times Cain’s command was so strong and his breaking ball was so sharp, he reminded me a bit of Mark Prior in his heyday. Working off of simply fastball command and a strong curve ball, Cain dominated the Brewers lineup and made a significant impression on this analyst’s eyes. The improved command is significant for Cain. While his K Rates and BB Rates have settled in around the .85 and .40 rates respectively, the upside is really in cutting down the walks. If he can cut the BB’s down to the .30 range, he’ll find his ERA in the low-to-mid 3’s instead of mid-to-high 3’s along with a WHIP more consistently in the 1.2’s as opposed to the 1.3’s. It was only one start by such extreme strike rates are significant, and suggest Cain may be on the verge of finally putting it all together in one season.
Dennys Reyes:
Fantasy owners not familiar with Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa may be rushing to the waiver wire to grab lefty-specialist Dennys Reyes after he was the first person LaRussa turned to in the aftermath of Jason Motte’s blown save on opening day. While Reyes could see a few saves here and there, he won’t be the primary closing option and at this point, knowing LaRussa, my guess is there won’t be a primary closing option unless someone significantly separates themselves from the pack. LaRussa is known for mixing and matching at the end of games to get the matchups he desires and I imagine he’ll continue to do this from here on out. Motte, Franklin, and Reyes will each get occasional save opportunities and in weekly lineup traditional mixed formats, the Cardinals closer situation is one to avoid if possible. Of the candidates for the role, Jason Motte still remains the most likely to emerge as long as Chris Perez is still in AAA.
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