Adam Dunn (OF – Nationals)
Adam Dunn launched his 6th homer of the season on Tuesday night. The 6 HR are expected from Dunn, but the real story of significance is his current EYE of 1.54. As a basis for comparison, Dunn’s career EYE is 0.64. His current BB rate is 23.8% versus a 17.2% career mark, and his current K% is 21.3% versus 32.3% for his career. Dunn’s greatly improved contact rate (76.4% in ‘09 versus 71.4% career) has resulted in a .328 BA. Additionally, Dunn’s 25% LD rate on the season fully supports his .326 BABIP. It is still too early to know if this is a small sample size playing tricks on us, or if it is a sustainable shift in Dunn’s approach at the plate. But nonetheless, it is still exciting to think about the possibility of having Dunn’s power numbers without the usual devastating BA that accompanies the HRs.
Kyle Lohse (SP – Cardinals)
Kyle Lohse threw 6 scoreless innings last night to drop his ERA to 1.97 on the season. In very un-Kyle Lohse like fashion, he walked 4 batters, but was able to strike out 6 to get out of trouble situations. Lohse, for the first time in his career, posted an ERA below 4.00 in ’08. This career high was reached due to a small improvement in skill (2.43 K/BB ratio versus 2.07 career; and 45.8 GB% versus 41.6% career) and also a small improvement in luck (73.6 LOB% versus 70.8% career). Thus far in ’09, Lohse has begun to prove that the small improvement in skill was real and sustainable by currently sporting a 2.38 K/BB ratio and a 45.2 GB%. His LOB% may very likely regress in ’09, which would move his ERA back up around 4.00; but, if he can continue along his current K/BB ratio and GB%, his WHIP should remain consistent with last season’s (1.30). But, before you go and get too excited about his hot start, Lohse’s ERA and WHIP have both been enhanced by a .249 BABIP and a 3.4 HR/FB% in the early going.
Chase Utley (2B – Phillies)
It appears Chase Utley is not quite ready to relinquish the crown as fantasy’s best 2B. He smacked two more homers last night, giving him 7 on the season along with a .357 BA, 20 RBI, 18 R, and 2 SB. Utley has started the season off with a 12:10 BB: K ratio, which more than doubles his career EYE of .56. He has adopted a decidedly more conservative approach at the plate so far this year by swinging at just 35.6% of the pitches he sees versus a career mark of 43.5%. Taking more pitches has set him up for more hitter’s counts, as his first pitch strike percentage is just 44.4% this season versus 57% for his career. In turn, he is seeing more meaty pitches to drive, which he is taking advantage of with a 28% HR/FB rate in the early going. It would be quite a feat for Utley to improve upon the massive numbers he has put up in each of the last 4 years, but due to concerns regarding his hip in the off-season, he was most likely a nice little bargain on draft-day.
Ricky Nolasco (SP – Marlins)
Ricky Nolasco was once again roughed up on Tuesday night by allowing 4 ER in 5 IP. This now makes 0 quality starts in 5 tries for Nolasco on the season. Owners who drafted him expecting one of the NL’s best starting pitchers are certainly having their patience tested. One could argue that Nolasco’s ERA and WHIP have both been massively inflated by a BABIP of .390, and a LOB% of 57.2. On the other side of the coin, one could make the argument that his 29% LD rate supports his .390 BABIP, which theoretically it does. Obviously, there is some nuance involved in Nolasco’s early results. Also, Nolasco’s K/BB ratio is currently at 2.44, while it was 4.43 last season. The K/BB ratio, while not bad, is a far-cry from his ’08 numbers, and the LD% is somewhat troubling. The early returns look bleak, but after just 5 starts, I would take a deep breath and press cancel on that Nolasco for Kyle Lohse deal you were just offered.
Paul Maholm (SP – Pirates)
Paul Maholm was smoked for 5 ER in 5.1 IP on Tuesday night, while striking out just 2 and walking 5 batters. Maholm’s sparkling ERA fell to 3.09 on the season, but most troublingly, his K/BB ratio fell to a nice, round, panic-inducing 1.00. Maholm finished ’08 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, which were not very well supported by a 2.21 K/BB ratio. However, Maholm’s GB tendencies (53.6% in ’08) compensate for the less than stellar K/BB rate. Also, his ability to get ahead in the count (62% first pitch strike percentage in ’08) reduces the significance of his unimpressive K/BB numbers. Maholm has also been able to increase the percentage of swings generated on pitches outside the strike zone from ’06-‘09 (19.5%, 20.1%, 25.7%, and 27.6%), which is a definite good sign. Maholm will never be a guy who blows away opposing hitters, or posts a dominating K/BB ratio. Plain and simple, Maholm knows how to pitch. He consistently gets ahead in the count, and he keeps the ball down in the zone relying on his defense to make the routine plays. Since Maholm gets the job done in this non-sexy fashion, he will consistently be under-valued in fantasy leagues.
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