Brett Cecil SP-TOR:
After getting off to an atrocious start at AAA this season, it appears all Brett Cecil needed to get going was to face some stiffer competition. Cecil shut out the A’s for 8 innings on Sunday in his second stellar outing since being promoted. He allowed just 7 base-runners, 5 hits and 2 BB’s, while striking out 6. In his 2 outings, he’s posted an impressive 12:2 K:BB Ratio, a GB Rate north of 50%, and has thrown 65% of his pitches for strikes. My initial reaction is some of this success is driven by teams not having seen Cecil yet, given the struggles he was having in AAA (8 BB’s, 9 K’s in 17 1/3 innings), but the two starts were so dominant and so impressive from a peripherals standpoint that Cecil is deserving of a speculative pickup in all formats. He’s had some favorable matchups early on against the scuffling Tribe lineup and now Oakland, he’s had the benefit of surprise, and he’s struggled with his command at the AAA level both in ’08 and in ’09 in limited appearances (4.7 BB/9, 4.2 BB/9); so for now I’m tempering my expectations and only adding Cecil in spots where I have obvious roster space. As a comparison for other mixed leaguers I still like youngsters Jordan Zimmermann and Max Scherzer better than Cecil, but I’d certainly take a flier on him over limited-ceiling pitchers like Mike Pelfrey, Jarrod Washburn, etc.
Brad Ziegler RP-OAK:
I wrote extensively about the A’s bullpen situation in the spring noting how it’s a pen that always seems to produce saves from their setup men, which we’ve already seen with Andrew Bailey and Michael Wuertz each notching a save. This use of the pen can lead owners to give up quickly on the primary closer while wrongly identifying it as a bullpen committee. So when Brad Ziegler struggles for the 2nd consecutive outing just one day after Andrew Bailey picks up a save when Ziegler was supposedly available, I’m sure we’ll see Ziegler owners in a bit of a panic. The good news is Ziegler is actually pitching better than he did last year when he burst on the scene with a 1.06 ERA and a scoreless streak record to start his career; unfortunately, he’s having a significant reversion in his luck. Ziegler’s BHIP% is approaching .400, which as an extreme ground ball pitcher is going to have a significant impact on the rest of his numbers. Ziegler’s actually striking batters out more frequently than last year and even rolling more ground balls (upwards of 70%). His peripherals suggest he’ll be able to hold onto the role long-term, but this recent bout with bad luck combined with Andrew Bailey’s strong pitching could create a short-term closer-by-committee situation. Long-term Ziegler’s still the guy you want in the A’s bullpen, so stay patient through these recent struggles.
Mark Teahen 3B/OF-KC:
Sometimes as a fantasy analyst you’re writing about guys you just can’t figure out in hopes of digging down into the numbers and getting some answers. Such is the case this morning with Mark Teahen. Teahen’s had wide variances in his production throughout his major (from as low as .685 to as high as .874) and minor league career (from as low as .678 to as high as .852). When breaking down the peripherals, the only discrepancy you see between Teahen’s strong years and his poor years is simply his extra base hit rate. His EYE largely remained the same during those seasons as were his GB/FB splits. Unfortunately the numbers don’t tell a complete story for Teahen as to the rest of this season, but seeing his EYE spike higher, his GB Rate drop, and his EXBH Rate (approx 10% is creeping towards the 11% rate he posted in his two best seasons at the minor and major league level) rise, makes me believer this may be one of the “good years” for Teahen. A .290 average with 16-20 HR’s and 75 RBI’s/Runs seems reasonable for Teahan.
Luke Hochevar SP-KC:
With Soria going to the DL, the Royals have decided to replace Soria’s roster spot with a SP instead of a RP. Former #1 pick of the Royals Luke Hochevar will get the nod on Tuesday and becomes a two-start pitching option this week with a couple favorable matchups (@OAK, BAL). Hochevar has been pitching quite well at AAA posting a 5-0 record with a 0.90 ERA in 40 IP. The numbers are impressive but the peripherals don’t really back it up. Hochevar’s striking out just 6.8 batters/9 and is really benefiting from some great luck on balls in play. He’s doing a good job limiting the BB’s (just 2.2/9) and his GB rates remain strong, but I’m not a big believer in Hochevar from a fantasy perspective. He won’t strike many batters out and thus has a limited ceiling. If he can continue to post good command numbers with a high GB Rate, he may be able to replicate the type of success a guy like Mike Pelfrey had in 2008, but that seems to be near his ceiling. He’s a nice spot-start option on Tuesday against the scuffling A’s offense, but in traditional mixed leagues he’s someone I’m not paying much attention to. In AL-only formats, he’s certainly roster-worthy.
Rick Porcello SP-DET:
Porcello picked up his 3rd win of the season throwing 5 shutout innings against the Tribe on Sunday. Porcello relied on his usual mix with good control (just 2 BB’s) and lots of ground balls (7-3 GO-AO ratio) to shut down the Indians. Porcello’s had a mix of good and bad luck early in the season as a .239 BHIP% has kept his WHIP down to just 1.31, but he’s also had some horrible luck with his HR/FB Rate, which is over 26%. I’ve compared Porcello to his teammate Armando Galarraga before and their numbers to this point in the season are nearly identical. Galarraga has some more potential in his K Rate as he’s shown growth there and will come with less volatility overall, but I think the two will have similar value throughout the season.
