John Danks – Danks showed his ability to dominate last night. Despite receiving a no decision, he pitched 6 strong innings, striking out 10 while only allowing 1 walk and 1 ER. Last year, Danks broke out, sporting an impressive FIP ERA of 3.44. This season, Danks has improved slightly moving him into the upper tier of fantasy pitchers. Holding his walk rate the same as last year, Danks has seen his K/9 jump up from 7.34 to 8.13. Also, for the second straight season Danks is showing a solid improvement in his groundball rate, while seeing slight drops in both his LD% and FB%. These are all little improvements, but when you add them all up on a pitcher who was already solid it could lead to great things.
Scott Kazmir - I’ve been reading in multiple places that Kazmir’s ERA is down on both his fastball and his slider. The result: a heck of a lot less swing and misses. Over his career, batters have swung and missed at Kazmir’s pitches outside of the strike zone half of the time. This year they are only swinging and missing less than a quarter of the time. That is a dramatic decrease, and the story is the same for pitches inside the strike zone where Kazmir’s pitches are being swung and missed at about 5% less than over his career. This spells trouble for a pitcher with poor control (career BB/9 of 4.17) who succeeded due to a high K rate. Kazmir is striking out 7.11 batters per 9; that is 2.5 batters less than his career mark.
Jason Giambi – Jason Giambi finally showed signs of life yesterday, as his 2 round trippers tripled his HR output on the year. Obviously we are never going to see the old Giambino, but I do think he is headed for some sort of turn around. He has a decent EYE at the plate (.76), and he continues to put the ball in the air. However, his HR/FB%, even after yesterday’s 2 dingers, is just 8.8%. Now, Giambi may be in decline, but even last year 18% of his fly balls went for homers. I don’t expect him to repeat that number, but his HR/FB% will certainly rise meaning there are more long balls coming Giambi’s way shortly.
Joe Saunders - I’ve never been as high on Saunders as some, but he certainly tossed a gem last night. He threw a complete game shutout against Kansas City, striking out 6 and walking just 1. If Saunders posted that kind of K/BB mark every night I’d be more of a believer, but even with that performance Saunders has a K/BB ratio of just 2. He beat his FIP ERA by more than a run last season, and he is currently beating it by more than 2 runs this season. I just don’t see Saunders being able to continue to do that when he is striking out just 4.68 batters per 9. His LOB% is currently 79%, and his career mark is 72.7%. Also, his current BABIP is .249, and his career mark is .288. Saunders’ luck is going to run out sooner or later, and when it does he won’t have a solid K rate or super high groundball rate to lean back on. He is a sell high candidate in my book.
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