Kevin Millwood- TEX- Hot- Millwood takes the mound this afternoon in Detroit having thrown quality starts 6 times in his first 8 outings of the year. He has gone at least 7 innings in every one except his last, when he was battling a bug. A good part of Millwood’s success has come from luck, with his .254 BHIP helping him, as his numbers of .335 and .352 over the past two years hurt him. Most of the luck seems to have helped him at home, as Millwood enjoys a 2.10 in Arlington is highly abnormal. He has only given up 2 homers in 30 IP at home. This is highly unlikely to be sustained. After a regression to the mean happens, and with his K/9 of 4.94 it’s almost inevitable, Millwood’s stats will worsen, but expect him to be closer to the 3.81 ERA he has posted on the road than the 5.00 + numbers he has had each of the past 2 seasons. Another plus is that with the Rangers’ offense, if Millwood only pitches decently in any given game he has a chance to win.
Edwin Jackson- DET- Hot- Jackson has given up 1 earned run in his odd-numbered starts so far this season, and that came in his first start of the season. His outing this afternoon against the Rangers will be start number 9 for him. It’s likely just an artifact of a small sample size as there is no other readily apparent reason such as a usage pattern where he ends up with short outings on even numbered starts, so don’t read too much into it. If it does continue today, then it might be worth digging into for clues as to whether there is some underlying cause, but since he threw his first even numbered quality start last time out, it may just be coincidence.
Adam Jones- BAL- Hot- Jones seems all better from the hamstring that shelved him for a few games. He hit his 9th homer, equaling the career high he set last year, in a 2-for-4 effort against the Yankees. He is also likely to set a career mark in SBs, with double digits being likely and 10 his high, also last year. Jones’ .370 average will come down, since it is in large part driven by a .321 BHIPx. However, with s decreased K rate and increased walk rate from last year, there is a good bet that his .270 average of last year will not be his career best by the time the season ends.
Orlando Cabrera- OAK- Hot- We appear to be seeing some regression to the mean right before our eyes. His BHIPx stood at .22 after he went 2-for-4 on Sunday. Since then Cabrera has hit is three more straight, going 5-for-13 and raising his batting average 13 point, to .244. He is on his way to reaching his .280 or better mark that he has hit in each of the past 3 seasons.
Scott Kazmir- TB- Danger- Kazmir and manager Joe Maddon supposedly are mystified as to why Kazmir has not had a quality start in his last 5. Somebody should have given them a subscription to Fantistics. I’ve seen this coming for a long time and been screaming about it. It’s practically criminal how Maddon has abused Kazmir’s arm and will probably do for him what Billy martin did for countless pitchers. This is a textbook case of the results of making a very young pitcher throw too many pitches. The talent was there, but the probability is that it will have been wasted. Such a shame.