NL Player Report - June 27, 2009

Chris Young: Young, who has been out with a shoulder injury, is not expected back until after the All-Star break. Before hitting the DL, Young was struggling, 4-6 with a 5.21 ERA, and the drop in his skills, 2008/2009 K/9’s of 8.2/5.9 and BB/9’s of 4.2/4.7, suggests that it was related to the shoulder problem. Over the years, Young has enjoyed depressed BHIP%’s, 2006/2007/2008/2009 #’s of .224/.239/.254/.244. Nobody is that lucky so it is a skill. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, 2006/2007/2008/2009 FB%’s of 56%55%/53%/52%, playing in a spacious home park, most of the balls put into play fall for outs. With shaky control, Young could be vulnerable in some of the smaller parks around the league. If healthy, Young is always a good start at home or in any other spacious park.

Ryan Doumit: Doumit, who has been out since April 19th with a wrist injury, should soon begin playing in rehab games. He had a breakout season last year, 15/69/.318 with 34 doubles in 431 AB. He showed a marked improvement in his contact skills, 2006/2007/2008 Ct%’s of 72%/77%/87%, which he will need to sustain to be a .300+ hitter as he has poor plate patience, BB%’s of 9%/8%/5%. With a 35% FB% in 2008, he will have a hard time repeating that kind of power. Doumit needs to prove that last year was not a fluke.

Chad Tracy: Tracy, who has been out with an oblique injury, should be back with the D’Backs in the next couple of day. With such weak competition at first base, if he hits, he should see plenty of playing time. He has struggled with injuries over the last few seasons and has not been able to build on the power that he showed earlier in his career, 2005/2006 home run’s of 27/20 and doubles of 34/41. He is still only 29 years of age so it is hard to believe that his power is gone. If healthy and with a high FB%, 2007/2008/2009 FB%’s 45%/46%/45%, Tracy could provide some power for those in NL-only leagues.

JA Happ: Happ has been productive with the Phillies this year, 4-0 with a 3.47 ERA. However with a 4.4 BB/9, 48% FB%, and a tiny home park, he carries substantial risk. Keep an eye on the walks, if he doesn’t improve in that area, you may want to consider sitting him for home starts or road starts like today in Toronto’s homer-happy park.

Javier Vazquez: Rather than his 5-6 record, Vazquez’s ERA, 3.18, and skills, 10.6 K/9 and a 1.8 BB/9, give us a better picture of how dominant he has been. If he can keep those skills up and his .303 BHIP% normalizes, you will be looking at a sub 3.00 ERA. Today he has a tough assignment against the visiting Red Sox.

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