Dan Haren- ARI- Caution- At this point last season Haren had hit or exceeded the 110 pitch mark twice. So far this year he has done it 5 times. For a pitcher who has exhibited a noted second half fade in the past 3 seasons, this could compound the issues.
Chris Carpenter- STL- Hot- Carpenter takes the mound tonight with 7 consecutive quality starts under his belt. Regression to the mean still hasn’t happened, as he still sports a BHIP of .189. Still if and when it does, the drop off should not be too horrible. His 9 walks in 65.2 IP just will not give opponents that many chances to do him in. Carpenter can afford to allow some more hits without too much damage happening.
Ubaldo Jimenez- COL- Hot- Jimenez did not get a decision in the extra inning contest with the Dodgers, but that was matter of nonsupport. He certainly pitched well enough to win, throwing 7 IP and allowing 2 runs on 5 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4. While the game was in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, Jimenez has performed almost as well at Coors Field as on the road, with a 3.79 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in Denver and a 3.71 ERA and 1.26 WHIP on the road. The home ERA and WHIP discrepancy is explained by an uncanny ability to keep the ball in the park. Jimenez has allowed only 1 homer in 40-1/3 IP in Coors. He will probably not be able to keep that pace up, so his number may suffer at home, but in 2007 he was able to tame Coors, so it is not unthinkable that he could maintain his current stats or at least something close to them.
Adrian Gonzalez- SD- Cold- It has not been a June to remember for Gonzalez. He has hit just .228 with only 4 homers after having a monster May in power terms slugging 11 homers albeit with only a .250 average. The reason is that opponents have given him the Barry Bonds treatment and just refuse to pitch to him. Gonzalez’s 32 walks (while only striking out 13 times) in June have resulted in a .450 OBP despite the low batting average. If teams keep treating him this way, it will be a long remainder of the season, as Gonzalez will spend a lot of time trotting to first base on a walk instead of all the way around after a long ball. If they instead figure that with his average they can afford to face him, there will be the opportunity for hefty production.
Adam Dunn- WAS- Cold- Dunn’s batting average has continued its trip south as regression to the mean continues to happen. A .229 batting average this month has brought him down to .257 for the season and there is still probably room for him to drop some more. Dunn’s .259 BHIPx is still higher than his norm. What is more disconcerting is that Dunn has only hit 3 homers in 83 June ABs. Still, his Batting EYE for the month is a decent .72, so the power drought is probably an anomaly. He could very easily go on a tear like the one that had him hitting 10 homers in May.