Jason Frasor:
Frasor worked a clean 9th inning, striking out 1 in the process, and now has 7 consecutive scoreless appearances. It was a 4 run lead so there is no indication of a switch in the closer’s role but with Scott Downs struggling mightily since his return from the DL (9.00 ERA, 2.60 WHIP and 5 BB’s in 5 IP), I’m thinking this job is more up in the air than anyone has indicated. I’m as big of a Scott Downs supporter as you can find and was on him early in the season, but with Frasor pitching much better of late I think this situation bears monitoring. In leagues where I own Downs I’ve been trying to grab Frasor as an insurance policy and I’d suggest you do the same.
John Smoltz:
Smoltz continues to pitch in pretty horrible luck. On Sunday he gave up 9 hits and 6 ER’s in 5 innings, despite posting a solid 6:1 K:BB Ratio. He’s showing impressive skills 8.2 K/9, 1.47 BB/9, 46% GB Rate, but atrocious luck .350 BHIP% and 0.56 Strand Rate are making Smoltz look like a thing of the past rather than the #2 type fantasy starter his skills are suggesting. His velocity has been down a tick (about 1 mph), but his LD% has been in line with years past, so unlike a guy like Ervin Santana where the horrible luck is magnifying a still shaky set of skills, Smoltz’s poor luck is obliterating some pretty impressive skills. Now would be a nice time to try and buy low on Smoltz, who should get better run support and far better luck as the season wears on.
Kendry Morales:
After losing his hitting streak on Thursday, Morales has gotten things going again picking up hits in each of the next 2 games and knocking out his 18th HR of the season on Sunday. Though the totals in itself have been impressive for Morales .289/.341/.542 with 46 Runs, 18 HR’s, and 56 RBI’s; the consistency has been the most impressive part of the season. He’s posted an OPS above .813 in every month, with good consistency in his Run (11-9-15-11), HR (3-5-5-5), and RBI (14-16-11-15) production. With dual eligibility at 1B and OF, Morales has been one of the better late round draft selections or waiver wire pickups all season. In addition he appears to only be getting better as the weather heats up, posting an extra base hit rate of 15.3% since June (12.6% before June).
Ervin Santana:
Santana continued to frustrate owners posting his 4th ugly start in 5 outings since returning from the DL. He was hit hard giving up 6 hits and 6 ER’s in just 3 2/3 innings. The K:BB remains slightly below last season as he struck out 4 and walked 2 and now has a 0.90 K Rate and .34 BB Rate in the 5 July starts (.98 K Rate and .21 BB Rate last season). The real damage though has been an increased HR Rate and in general balls just being hit far harder than in seasons’ past. A 24% LD Rate and an average of 2.4 HR/9 are both indicative of a pitcher who is just not quite right. His fastball velocity has dipped over 3 MPH this season and its effecting pitch selection as he’s using his fastball 12% less this year and instead relying on a Change-up and Sinker a bit more. The results haven’t been good and though the peripherals indicate some of this bad luck will reverse trend (.341 BHIP%, 0.61 Strand Rate aren’t helping things), there’s enough holes in the data to confirm he isn’t the same pitcher as last season. In traditional mixed formats he’s a drop candidate, while in AL only leagues he deserves a spot on the bench until improvements are shown.
Ryan Garko:
I touched on Garko back at the end of June noting Mark DeRosa’s departure may actually result in increased playing time for Garko as he was being given some of the time in LF. This has been the case as Garko’s topped 70 AB’s in July for the first time all season and has responded with 3 HR’s, 9 Runs, and 7 RBI’s while hitting .343. While the call on increased value was accurate, I’d recommend shopping Garko if possible. The batting average in July is a bit fluky as it’s supported by a .360 BHIP% as his EYE has deteriorated (.07 EYE in July). In addition, Garko’s name has surfaced in some trade rumors of late and a move out of Cleveland would likely result in a lesser lineup around him. The Indians also have incentive later in the year to get AB’s for younger players like Matt LaPorta at which point Garko’s playing time (which has increased of late) will dip back down. Now may be the time to try to move him at peak value for those in AL only formats.
