Jayson Nix (2B – White Sox)
Just when it appeared as though some of Jayson Nix’s playing time was about to dry up with the arrival of Alex Rios, Chris Getz landed on the 15-day DL, which opens up 2B everyday for Nix in the near term. Nix has shown some impressive tools in ’09, by smacking 8 HR and stealing 7 bases in just 152 at bats. These numbers project out to a 26 HR / 23 SB season over 500 at bats. The downside to Nix is, and always has been, his batting average. He is currently batting .230 on the season, which can be attributed to a miserably low 12.3% LD rate. He is a career .261 hitter in the minors, even while receiving over 1000 of his at bats in Triple-A Colorado Springs. The power and speed numbers are for real; but unfortunately, so is the batting average. He will be valuable in AL-only leagues over the next two weeks for sure.
Clete Thomas (OF – Tigers)
Now, I know that I’ve harped on Clete Thomas a lot this year, but I just cannot find any logic in batting him 3rd in the last 8 games that he has started. I am not sure what exactly the Tigers see in Thomas, but I’ll tell you what I see, and that is a player that is extremely fortunate to have a .251 batting average on the season. Clete is currently sporting a .294 BABIP that is inflated by 60 full points based on his 11.4% LD rate. Additionally, his 53.7% GB rate confirms that he is really not hitting the ball well at all. His career .754 minor league OPS tells me that he is fortunate to even be on a major league roster, but the reality of the situation is that not only is he on a roster – he actually plays about 75% of the time, and somehow finds himself occupying the number 3 spot in the order when he does play. I’d like to be able to ignore Clete Thomas, but it just can’t be done in AL-only leagues due to his potential for racking up adequate counting stats.
Lyle Overbay (1B – Blue Jays)
The man formerly known as the doubles-hitting machine has made noticeable, but not largely recognized improvements this season. First of all, his EYE has jumped all the way up to 1.05 this year, while his career average is .67. This improvement has largely been attributable to increasing his BB rate to 17.4% from a career mark of 11.8%. This BB rate has seen the large jump because he has swung at far fewer pitches outside of the strike zone this season (14.8% vs. career of 17.8%). A product of this improved plate discipline has been the highest FB rate of Overbay’s career (37% vs. 31.1% for career). He’s always been able to rope line drive with the best of them, but his lack of HR at the 1st base position always limited his fantasy value. After 92 games played this season, it is a safe bet to declare that he has made some sustainable improvements. The product of these improvements has been a HR total (13) that does not make him a liability in mixed leagues. Also, consider that his .298 BABIP should be due for some positive regression in the final month-plus of the season. Finally, consider that he is now hitting in the clean-up spot since the departure of Alex Rios. Overbay is shaping up for a big finish in what should end up being a surprising career year at the age of 32.
Jason Frasor (RP – Blue Jays)
Jason Frasor picked up his 6th save of the season on Friday night. It looks like Drew was dead-on with his multiple Frasor recommendations within the last couple weeks. He has been very effective all season long (8.06 K/9, 2.40 BB/9), and he has picked up 3 saves and a win in the month of August. However, there are some issues that leave me skeptical of Frasor’s value for the remainder of the ’09 season. Firstly, judging by his lack of appearances over the last few years with the Blue Jays, it does not appear as though the coaching staff has had a lot of confidence in Frasor. Secondly, Scott Downs is eligible to return from the DL on Monday, and I would assume that he is given back at least a share of the closer’s duties. Lastly, his peripherals are screaming for some regression in a bad way (.260 BABIP, 80.8% strand rate, 46.3% FB rate, 2.0% HR/FB rate). The combination of his very high FB rate with his extremely low HR/FB rate has me very concerned that we could see balls flying out of the park left and right down the stretch. Overall, Frasor has been a nice little pick-up for many an owner, but I do believe that he will struggle down the stretch and will not be closing games for the Jays.
Ryan Rowland-Smith (SP – Mariners)
In quite the surprise, Ryan Rowland-Smith held the Yankees to just 2 ER in 7 IP on just 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 5. Although his ERA and WHIP sit at 3.60 and 1.11, respectively through 6 starts on the season, you do not want the man from down under on your fantasy squad. First of all, he’s been a reliever during the vast majority of his major and minor league careers, which does not speak highly of his potential. Secondly, his K/9 of 5.14 and BB/9 of 3.21, along with his FB rate of 49.5% are all very scary numbers (the FB rate is the most scary). He has yet to be exposed this year due to a BABIP of .241 and a HR/FB of 8.9%. When these numbers normalize, Rowland-Smith is going to be in for a world of hurt.
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