Marc Rzepczynski has moved up through the Blue Jays system pretty much under the radar. Although considered to be a prospect before the start of the season, everyone including us had him outside of the top 5 prospects in the Jays system. Baseball America ranked him as the 9th best prospect for the Jays...hardly an endorsement. Despite the lack of acknowledgement, Rzepczynski has cut up through the Jays minor league system from A to the majors in less than 3 years (but mostly because of necessity). Last night he ripped through a Rays lineup only allowing 2 ER over 6 Innings. He K’d 7 but walked 5. He’s got top 50 potential for this year, but it will only continue until teams get a second look. He’s been walking too many batters as evidenced by his high pitch count and 4.2/9, but he does have a decent K/I ratio of .91...which means that he does have the ability to get the k when he gets into trouble. Of his starts since his callup (10), he’s only had one blow up. Don’t expect more than 6 IP from him an outing however, and he’s not a keeper for 2010 unless you look at him as in the 70-90 starter range.
Nick Blackburn is pitching pretty close to our expectations this season. The breakout that some expected hasn’t gone according to plan, as Nick has struggled in the 2nd half. Of his last 9 outings only 2 have been quality starts. Nick still has considerable upside, but he’s going to have to miss a few more bats before he can achieve anything beyond a 3rd rotation slot pitcher. His .44 K/I ratio leaves him at the mercy of the percentages when it comes to balls hit in play. This year he’s averaging the same ratio as he did last year (.302) which is about 1 4points higher than the league average.
Will Luke Hochevar ever achieve his potential as a can’t miss prospect? It’s not going to be this year. In watching Hochevar, it seems that he doesn’t concentrate when he needs to bear down...often not making his pitch when he needs to. His strand rate of .62 is very evident of a pitcher who is not locating in critical situations (league average is .74). What puzzles me most about Hochevar is his poor K% (which has improved to .72 over last year’s .56. Yet I believe he has the ability to be make hitters miss at a more prolific rate, as evidenced by his outing on July 25th when he struck out 13 in 7 innings. He could be the next Edwin Jackson somewhere down the line, we just don’t know when it will fall into place. However we do see progression, and that’s a good sign. Luke fell to 6-7 after allowing 3 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work yesterday.
Gavin Floyd ERA and WHIP this season are very consistent with what was projected for him this season, which is very much in line with his 2008 season. What hasn’t been there this season is his win totals, but we pretty much knew going in that his Win total from last year was inflated by 3 Wins thanks to a better than norm BHIP% in 2008. Floyd should finish pretty close to our 14 projected Wins. He has 7 starts to do it and based on his 64% QS ratio, it should bring him pretty close. Floyd has also be suffering from a lack of run support this year, as evidenced by his 6 IP, 2 Runs allowed performance last night.
Edwin Jackson has been struggling of late. Yesterday it took him 115 pitches to get through 6 1/3 innings. Over his last 6 starts only 1/2 have been of the quality variety. A departure for a pitcher that has thrown a quality outing in 76% of his appearances this season (excellent). Could this be a dead arm period...quite possibly as his WHIP over the last 3 weeks is 1.42, as opposed to his stellar 1.18 season total. Edwin has also benefited from an extremely high Strand Rate this season (.81) and a lucky Balls in Play Success rate of only .257. So we could be seeing some regression to the mean as we enter the final stage of the 2009 campaign. Regardless his season was magical in every aspect and we did not in any way see this coming after 5 consecutive 1.50+ WHIP seasons. I respect this kid for turning it around.
