Chris Volstad: Despite having his surface numbers decline in his sophomore year, 6-2 with a 2.88 ERA in his rookie season vs. 9-9 with a 4.61 ERA this year, Volstad’s skills have improved, 2008/2009 K/9’s 5.6/6.2, BB/9’s 3.8/3.0, and GB%’s 53%/50%. The better numbers from last year are explained by the luck of the bouncing ball, 2008/2009 S%’s 78%/69% and BHIP%’s .266/.279. He is just 22 years of age and with his skills heading in the right direction, he has a bright future with the Marlins.
Tommy Hanson: It has been a nice rookie season for Hanson, 8-2 with a 3.05 ERA in 13 starts. He has enjoyed some good fortune, 80% strand rate and a .275 BHIP%, but there are promising skills behind his numbers, 7.0 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, and a 39% GB%. Hanson turns 23 years old next week and his skills should keep improving, making him keeper material in most formats. Today, he is a good play at home against the Marlins.
Carlos Villanueva: With the year that Villanueva is having, 2-10 with a 6.25 ERA, it is hard to believe that the Brewers thought so highly of him that he began the season as the closer. It is never a good sign when a still developing, 25-year-old pitcher’s skills decline across the board, 2008/2009 K/9’s 7.7/6.9, BB/9’s 2.5/3.3, and GB%’s 47%/39%. He is still young enough where he can recover his 2008 skills, but you shouldn’t let him try while he is on your fantasy roster. Even though he faces the Nationals on the road today, he is not recommended in any format.
John Lannan: Despite only showing growth in his control, 2008/2009 K/9’s 5.8/3.8, BB/9’s 3.6/2.9, and GB%’s 54%/52%, the 24-year-old Lannan’s surface numbers have improved, 9-15 with a 3.89 ERA last year vs. 8-9 with a 3.68 ERA this year. Even though hitters put a lot of balls in play against him, luck has followed him the last two seasons, 2008/2009 S%’s 75%/76% and BHIP%’s .263/.279. That kind of good fortune will not last forever. It is hard to recommend someone with such a low dominance, without having pinpoint control and a higher GB%. Today he gets the Brewers at home.
Justin Lehr: The 32-year-old Lehr has looked good in 4 starts with the Reds this year, 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA. Don’t be fooled by it, as his skills, 2.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 44% GB%, will not lead to continued success. If you caught the lightening-in-a-bottle with him, consider yourself lucky and cut bait. He is not recommended even in his road start today against the woeful Pirates.
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