Cliff Lee: The National League seems to agree with Lee, as he has pitched better since the mid-season trade, AL/NL splits of ERA 3.14/2.67, K/9’s 6.3/8.4, and BB/9’s 2.0/1.3. Given his track record, 2007/2008 K/9’s 6.1/6.9, the high strike out totals in the NL probably will not last, but this is the second consecutive season that he has exhibited pinpoint control, 2008/2009 BB/9’s 1.4/1.8. Some friendly strand rates, 2008/2009 S%’s 78%/77%, suggests that we won’t see a sub 3.00 ERA from Lee next year, but his ERA shouldn’t hurt you and pitching for a better team all year should help him rack up plenty of wins in 2010.
Yovani Gallardo: While Gallardo showed big improvement in two key areas, 2008/2009 K/9’s 7.5/9.8 and GB%’s 40%/45%, the rise in walks, 2008/2009 BB/9’s 3.0/4.5, is alarming. The K’s and ground balls, plus some good luck, 76% Strand Rate and a .268 BHIP%, masked the problem this year, 3.84 ERA, but any dip in those skills could mean big problems for Gallardo in 2010.
Matt Cain: Cain’s good but not great skills, 6.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and a 39% GB%, should not be producing his 2009 numbers, 13-6 with a 2.71 ERA. Some very good luck, 82% Strand Rate and a .256 BHIP%, explains the low ERA. Expect his 2010 ERA to be more in line with his work previous to this season, 2007/2008 ERA’s 3.65/3.76, which will make him overvalued in next year’s auctions and drafts.
Dan Haren: Over the last two seasons, Haren has flashed elite skills, 2008/2009 K/9’s 8.6/8.6, BB/9’s 1.7/1.4, and GB%’s 44%/43%, and his numbers show it, 16-8 with a 3.33 ERA in 2008 and 14-8 with a 2.79 ERA this year. He turned 29 years old three days ago, so he is in his prime years. Expect more of the same from Haren in 2010.
Cole Hamels: Don’t be fooled by the nearly 1 point rise in Hamels ERA, 3.09 in 2008 vs. 4.07 this year, as his skills have actually improved, 2008/2009 K/9’s 7.8/8.0, BB/9’s 2.1/1.9, and GB%’s 40%/42%. An inflated .315 BHIP% helps explain the higher ERA. He will be 26 years of age at the start of 2010, so expect more skills growth and better numbers from Hamels next season.
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