Drew Stubbs: After hitting just 3 home runs in 411 Triple-A AB, it is surprising that Stubbs has blasted 8 home runs in 172 AB. With just 5 doubles, the power does seem fluky for the soon-to-be 25-year-old, but with a 6’4, 205 lb frame; it could be a development worth watching next year. What is not fluky is his speed, 10 steals in 14 attempts with the Reds after he swiped 46 steals in 54 attempts in Triple-A. His contact skills, 73% Ct% with the Reds and 75% Ct% in Triple-A, will keep a cap on his batting average, .Reds/Triple-A averages’ .262/.268, but if the power does keep developing, he will be a valuable power/speed threat in the Reds starting lineup next year.
Juan Pierre: Pierre has no plate patience, but outstanding contact skills, 2008/2009 BB%’s 6%/7% and Ct%’s 94%/93%, which still is leading to a healthy batting average, .305 in 370 AB. While he has never had power, what is troubling is what looks like the beginning of the decline in his speed skills, 40 steals in 52 attempts last year vs. 27 steals in 39 attempts this year. If this trend continues for the 32-year-old, his fantasy value, which is mostly driven by his speed, will continue to decline.
Willy Taveras: With the emergence of Drew Stubbs, Taveras will most likely have a new address next year. After an outstanding 2007 season, 2/24/.320 with 33 steals in 372 AB, Taveras has had two declining seasons, 1/26/.251 with 68 steals in 479 AB in 2008 and 1/15/.240 with 25 steals in 404 AB, with relatively stable skills, 2007/2008/2009 BB%’s 5%/7%/4%, Ct%’s 85%/83%/86%, and GB%’s 52%/52%/47%. While the speed skills are real, his BHIP%, 2007/2008/2009 BHIP%’s .340/.267/.249, explains the 2007 batting average. If he does land a starting job next year, he will provide speed, but the batting average will depend on good fortune.
Hunter Pence: Pence will be the magic age of 27 at the beginning of next year, but it is hard to see him improving on his power, 25 home runs and 26 doubles in 578 AB, unless he gets more loft on the ball, 2008/2009 GB%’s 52%/53%. With 5 Triples, he clearly has speed, but his is really going to need to work on stolen base technique, 21 caught steals in 46 attempts over the last two seasons, if he is going to get the green light on a regular basis.
Chad Qualls: Before going down with a season-ending knee injury in August, Qualls was working on a three-year trend of improving control, 2007/2008/2009 BB/9’s 2.7/2.2/1.2, with rest of his skills remaining relatively stable, 2007/2008/2009 K/9’s 8/5/8.7/7.8 and GB%’s 57%/58%57%. While you should expect a rise in his BB/9 next year from this season’s ridiculously low level, these are closer-worthy skills, 24 saves in 29 attempts. He should be healthy and ready to go by spring training in 2010 and at 31 years of age, he should have another solid year closing games.
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