Seth Smith:
Smith entered the season as the deepest sleeper in the Colorado OF largely due to playing time concerns. As the 4th OF in an OF with young players that need playing time like Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez and an established LH hitter who mashes RH pitching in Brad Hawpe, Smith looked like a situational OF with upside. Early in the season, playing time hasn’t been the concern as Smith has already drawn 5 starts, but instead skills have been the issue. His K Rate has sky-rocketed early in the season and the lone BB through his first 25 PA’s suggests he’s just not seeing the ball well. The power has been OK with 3 XBH’s in those 24 AB’s, but he’s been victimized by a .142 BHIP% which has driven down the BA. With Carlos Gonzalez ailing and facing a potential DL stint, Smith’s playing time should be safe through the weekend. This will buy him some more time to right the ship with the bat and continue to pull potential AB’s from Dexter Fowler long-term. In leagues with more than 12 teams, I’ve rostered Smith in hopes of getting a mini-Brad Hawpe on the cheap and I’ll continue to keep him on the roster as long as the PT is there. I believe the bat will come around despite the early season slump.
Nate McLouth:
McLouth’s horrid spring (6-51 16 K’s) was originally written off as just a bad spring (myself included), bu he’s carried over a lot of the spring problems into the regular season as well. McLouth has already struck out 9 times in his first 20 AB’s and is hitting just .150. The increased K Rate has also come with a spike in his BB Rate as he’s already notched 6 BB’s. The issue here is hitting out of the 8th hole McLouth just isn’t getting anything to hit. Pitchers are throwing just 41% of the pitches against McLouth in the strike zone. This coupled with an increased Swing % indicates pitchers are letting McLouth get himself out early in the season. Given that McLouth has averaged nearly a 20-20 season over the last 3 years, I’m inclined to remain patient with McLouth for another few weeks, but if he can’t show improved command of the zone hitting out of the 8 hole, he’s going to continue to struggle. He won’t get anything to hit and his K Rate will remain elevated. I’ve seen McLouth getting dropped in a couple 10 team Roto leagues I’m in. While I’m not using a waiver priority, I am pursuing him as an upside stash. I’ll give it two more weeks to evaluate his approach and if there’s no improvement I’ll move on. In the meantime, he’ll be planted firmly on my bench.
Cameron Maybin:
Maybin had a big night on Thursday going 3-4 with his first HR of the year. He scored twice while extending his hitting streak to 4 games and raised his season line to .310/.396/.405 with 12 Runs and 2 SB’s. Maybin’s drawing a lot of BB’s early in the season and wreaking havoc on the base-paths (scoring 12 times in 18 opportunities), but he’s also striking out a ton (13 K’s in 42 AB’s). While Maybin is flashing the elite tools he’s always had, much of the hot start is buoyed by good luck. A .407 BHIP% is masking a low XBH Rate (4.7%). The XBH’s aren’t coming because he’s hitting 75% of his balls on the ground right now, which is great when they’re finding holes, but will ultimately limit his upside. Prospect-gushers will see the quick start and think the breakout is ahead, but Maybin’s peripherals tell a much different story. The high K Rate coupled with a high GB Rate will eventually leave Maybin as a low BA, low power hitter who derives all his value from lineup positioning. Unless the peripherals take a dramatic step forward, I’m not buying on Maybin’s early season success.
Hiroki Kuroda:
Kuroda’s a personal favorite of mine as a command specialist who gets forgotten about. He’s basically a Ted Lilly type that gets lost in the mix. On Thursday night he suffered from some atrocious defense behind him, but wiggled out of jams and ended up limiting the DBacks to 3 Runs (2 Earned) over 7 innings. In typical fashion he didn’t walk a batter, while striking out 7 and though he gave up 10 hits in the outing, one was a lost FB in the lights (1 of the ER’s) and another was a GB Furcal booted in the hole. Kuroda pitched far better than his line indicated and even with all the hits on Thursday, he’s now posted a 1.07 WHIP through his first 2 starts with a tremendous 14:1 K:BB Ratio. In my mind he remains a solid #3 Fantasy starter who is valued like a 5 or a 6.
JA Happ:
I’m not sure which career JA Happ has a better future as: a SP? Or a Magician? After defying all odds last year with a .270 BABIP against and 85% LOB%, Happ is back at it again in 2010. Happ has allowed 17 base-runners in just 10 1/3 innings through his two starts, but sits with a tidy 0.00 ERA. On Thursday he walked 6 without striking out a batter and now has a 5:8 K:BB Ratio through 2 starts against the Astros and Nationals. All last season we told you Happ’s success wasn’t sustainable and all he did was post a 2.93 ERA with a 12-4 record. We’ll continue to tell you this season that his success is unsustainable and he’s more of a back-end rotation guy than a great fantasy contributor, and we’ll see if Happ can continue the magic or turn into a pumpkin.
There are over 100 player news blurbs posted in the member area each morning, members can read the rest of today's player news by clicking here link:www.fantistics.com/baseball00/. Not a member? Join today link:www.fantistics.com/join/join.php3
Also if you're interested in daily updates and analysis from my vantage point. Follow me all season long on Twitter at http://twitter.com/DrewDinkmeyer
