Hunter Pence -- With Lance Berkman on the disabled list to begin the season, Pence will hit third in Houston’s lineup instead of his usual fifth spot. The change could provide short-term gains in RBI and Runs. Thanks to swinging at just 26% of pitches outside the strike zone last season (compared to 31% in ’08), Pence’s plate approach improved significantly as he raised his BB% from 6.2% to 9.0% and lowered his K% from 20.8% to 18.6%. He’s quietly put together back-to-back 25 HR campaigns and at just 27 this month, Pence could be primed for a 30 HR, 80 RBI, and 15 Steal season.
Bronson Arroyo -- In his final spring training start, Arroyo allowed 10 runs (5 earned) on 11 hits in just four innings against the Indians. Arroyo finished spring training with a 5.70 ERA and a 1-4 record in 23 innings of work. In 2009 Arroyo posted a solid 3.84 ERA and 1.27 WHIP en route to recording a 15-Win season, but don’t expect a repeat of those numbers in 2010. Last season, Arroyo only tallied a 5.19 K/9 (down from 7.34 K/9 in ’08) and enjoyed a .270 BABIP (a drop of 51 points from his ’08 season). With his first start slated against the Cardinals on Thursday, it’s best that Arroyo owners take a wait-and-see approach before penciling him into their weekly rotations.
Francisco Rodriguez -- The Mets’ closer will return to the team on Sunday after traveling to Venezuela to be with his brother who was involved in a serious car accident. This news means Rodriguez should be ready to close on Opening Day, if needed. In 2009, Rodriguez’s ERA jumped from 2.24 in ’08 to 3.71 and his FIP increased from 3.22 in ’08 to 4.01. Other key indicators also trended in the wrong direction from ’08 to ’09 – his K/9 dropped (from 10.14 to 9.66) while both his BB/9 and HR/FB increased (BB/9 from 4.48 to 5.03 and HR/FB from 0.53 to 0.93). He’ll still tally strong strikeout numbers and post 30+Saves, but his best days are likely behind him.
Mike Jacobs -- Jacobs will start Opening Day as the Mets’ cleanup hitter, batting between David Wright and Jason Bay. Despite some experts and fans getting excited about Jacobs’ potential in 2010, I’m still not sold that he has a ton of fantasy value. First, he’s splitting time with Fernando Tatis and will start only against right handers. Second, he struck out in more than 30% of his ABs last season, his ISO dropped to .173 and he OBP’d .297. Third, he’s playing his home games in pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Did I mention his OPS was .698, SLG% was .401 and the ROYALS cut him last season? Don’t fall for the buzz – there are better options than Jacobs at first base.
Ryan Braun -- Braun enters the 2010 season as a consensus top 5 fantasy baseball player. He improved his K/9 and BB/9 rates in 2009, posted his third straight 30+ HR season, drove in a career-high 114, and hit a cool .320. Entering his age-26 season, the sky is truly the limit for the Brewers’ left fielder. While it’ll be tough to beat out the immortal Albert Pujols for best hitter in baseball in 2010, Braun could post 40+ HR, 100 Runs, 110+ RBI, steal 20 bases and hit well over .300. The only concern with Braun is his feisty back, which has sidelined him at times during the past two seasons. He reported stiffness in his back earlier in spring training, but all indications point toward him being healthy for the 2010 campaign.
