Paul Konerko 1B (CHW) – What has gotten into Paul Konerko? He bopped his major league leading 13th HR last night. Not bad for a 34 YO slugger who is supposed to be in decline. Konerko’s HR/FB% has been pretty consistent the last 4 years (17.5/15.3/16.1/13.2), but it has skyrocketed to 30.2% thus far this season. That has me awful tempted to call Konerko’s hot start a fluke. However, Konerko has been extremely patient at the plate. He currently has a career high EYE of 1.82. He is walking at a career best rate with an amazing 16.9 BB%. Meanwhile, Konerko’s K% of 11.6 is his lowest since 2003. Now, Konerko will not maintain a 30.2% HR/FB% all season long, but the patience he has shown at the plate is allowing him to a.) put more balls in play and b.) get good pitches to hit. I think those factors are important in evaluating Konerko’s hot start, and while he will most definitely cool down, Konerko is not done yet as a power hitter.
Jason Jaso C (TB) – Both Fantistics’ Robert Gross and Drew Dinkmeyer pointed out at the end of April that Jaso, due to his minor league track record, might become a nice in season sleeper at the catcher position. Jaso has not disappointed. In 14 games, he has already drawn 11 walks. While his current EYE of 5.50 is not sustainable, it is evidence of a solid approach by Jaso, especially when you consider he had all of 10 major league plate appearances before getting called up this season. With that kind of plate discipline, it stands to reason that Jaso may very well be able to maintain his current .314 average. Jaso’s current contact rate of 94.3% is extremely good and further supports Jaso’s hot start.
Wade Davis SP (TB) – Davis had been on a good run as of late for the Rays, but he struggled in Oakland last night. He took the loss after lasting just 5 IP in which he gave up 3 ER. Davis is a top pitching prospect, but the success he is currently having is probably not sustainable in the short run. For starters, Davis has 3 wins in 6 starts, but due to control issues and high pitch counts, Davis is averaging just under 6 IP per start. His inability to go deep into ball games will probably begin to cost him some wins. Also, Davis has been wild (4.76 BB/9) but has not made up for it with a lot of dominance (6.62 K/9). As a result his xFIP ERA is 4.81, more than a run and a half higher than his actual ERA. Thus, we should expect to see a healthy rise in Davis’ WHIP and ERA once his low .253 BABIP rises and high 80.9% LOB% lowers.
Scott Baker SP (MIN) – Baker dominated the struggling Orioles last night, pitching 8 innings of one run ball. He allowed just 3 hits, while striking out 8 and walking none. Baker kept the ball on the ground very well in this outing, and if he continues to do this he could have a real big breakout season. Baker has always had a very good K/BB ratio (3.30 for his career), but he has been bitten by the long ball, having given up 1.16 HR/9 over his career, in large part due to a FB% of 45%. Entering the game last night, Baker had a career high GB% of 36.8% and a career low FB% of 38.5%. Of his 16 outs on balls in play last night, 11 were of the ground ball variety and only 5 came off of fly balls. So, those numbers are continuing to move in the right direction for Baker.
Doug Fister SP (SEA) – Fister tossed yet another quality start last night, going 7 strong against the Mariners and allowing 3 ER. As Fantistics’ Drew Dinkmeyer pointed out after Fister’s last start, although he has improved, he does not have a lot of upside. The problem with Fister is that he does not miss enough bats. In today’s 7 strong innings, he only struck out 2 batters, and entering the game his K/9 were just 4.11. With his increased control and GB rate, Fister can get by with his low K rate, but he should not be dominant as his recent run of starts would indicate he is. He allows too many balls in play, and will be burned by this sooner or later. It’s tough for any pitcher to strand 82.8% of base runners, let alone a guy who generates less than a strikeout every other inning.
