Francisco Liriano – After allowing just 3 ER in 29 IP in April, Liriano had struggled through his first 4 starts in May by yielding 16 ER in 23 IP. But Wednesday, the left hander stymied the Yankees’ offense surrendering just 2 ER on 8 Hits and striking out 7 in 7 IP and is hopefully back on track for his fantasy owners and Twins fans. When comparing Liriano’s April and May numbers, we find some interesting contrasts. Liriano has actually improved his K/9 and BB/9 in May but also suffered from an over-regression with his BABIP (.247 in April was too low, but .418 in May is ridiculous). He’s witnessed a drastic fall in his LOB% (from 89% in April to 64% in May) and he’s inducing fewer ground balls and more line drives in May (although he’s also increased his infield fly ball % by 6.5%). With all these different indicators moving in different directions, I’d focus on Liriano’s GB/FB and GB% when evaluating him moving forward. During his most successful season in 2006, the lefty posted an impressive 2.37 GB/FB mark and 55% GB%. If these two indicators trend in the right direction as the season progresses, I expect Liriano’s ERA and WHIP to do the same.
David Ortiz – Crow does not taste good. I have ragged on Ortiz multiple times this season but he’s making me look worse by the day. Entering Wednesday, Big Papi had posted an incredible 1.189 OPS in May with 8 HR and 21 RBI. He continued his hot streak last night by connecting for HR No. 10 and finished the game 2-for-4. Part of the left hander’s resurgence is an incredibly huge swing in his BABIP – from .206 in April to .395 in May. Additionally, Ortiz has doubled his LD% (from 14% in APR compared to 28% in May), drastically lowered his GB% (45% in APR compared to 21% in May) and cut his infield fly ball % by 10%. All told, Ortiz is one of the best hitters in baseball right now and you should ride the hot streak while you can. Typing that last sentence bruised my soul.
Andy Pettitte – Despite being 37-years old, Pettitte continues to pitch very well in 2010 as he picked up Win No. 6 Wednesday by holding the Twins to just 2 ER over 8 innings with a 16/5 GB/FB ratio. In 7 of 9 starts, Pettitte has yielded 2 ER or fewer and he now owns a 2.62 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Prior to Wednesday, Pettitte was benefiting from a LOB% of 82% and a .272 BABIP while also experiencing the highest contact % of his career (92% on swings). One area where Pettitte has excelled is his ability to throw a first pitch strike. While the MLB average is 58%, the lefty is firing strike one in 62% of opponents’ ABs. If you own Pettitte in your fantasy league, now is the time to sell high as his indicators point toward an ERA closer to 4 by season’s end.
Adrian Beltre – While playing in the least friendly hitters’ park for right hander batters in the majors last season, Beltre struggled to the tune of a .114 ISO and 8 HRs in 449 ABs. It’s safe to say moving to hitter-friendly Fenway has made a positive impact on the veteran third baseman as he entered Wednesday’s game with an impressive .327/.361/.492 line. The only concern for Beltre’s fantasy owners was his lack of power since he had connected for just 3 HRs through his first 171 ABs. That changed last night as the former Mariner smashed 2 HRs, added a triple and drove in 6 runs during Boston’s 11-3 win over the Rays. He finished the game 4-for-5. With a career ISO of.182 and 3 straight 25+ HR seasons before 2009, Beltre should continue to thrive in Boston and once again provide excellent power at the hot corner. He’s definitely enjoying an unsustainable BABIP of .381 but assuming the BA and power numbers even out, Beltre’s looking at a 25 HR, 90 RBI, .280 season.
Matt Garza – The Rays’ right hander struggled against the Red Sox Wednesday en route to his worst outing of the season. He allowed 6 ER on 5 Hits while issuing 5 free passes in 5 innings of work to elevate his season ERA and WHIP to 2.97 and 1.15, respectively. Garza has struck out fewer batters in ’10 (7.52 K/9 compared to 8.38 in ’09) but also walked fewer (2.78 BB/9 compared to 3.50 in ’09) while enjoying a slightly deflated HR/9 of 0.70 (compared to career mark of 0.97). Other than those indicators, Garza looks to be the same pitcher that posted FIPs of 4.14 and 4.17 in 2008 and 2009 so don’t expect him to continue keeping his ERA in the low-3.00 range. The righty remains a very solid, if unspectacular, SP option in all league formats.
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