Josh Beckett – Josh Beckett couldn’t escape the 5th inning against the Yankees on Tuesday, allowing 5 Runs (3 ER) on 5 Hits and 3 Walks in just 4 2/3 innings. Beckett now owns an ugly 7.29 ERA and 1.66 WHIP to go along with a 1-1 record. The right hander’s struggles can be traced to an increased BB/9 (3.51 in ’10 compared to 2.33 in ’09), decreased K/9 (7.46 in ’10 compared to 8.43 in ’09) and a BABIP 63 points higher than a season ago. Most interesting, in the 5 starts where Beckett has issued at least 3 free passes, he’s allowed 32 ERs in 20 2/3 innings. In contrast, during the 3 starts where he walked fewer than 3 batters, Beckett has allowed just 5 ER in 21 innings. Beckett’s fantasy owners should wait until he can consistently pound the strike zone from start to start before deploying him back into their starting rotation.
Jered Weaver – After starting the season tallying 7 Quality Starts in his first 8 outings, Jered Weaver was shelled on Tuesday against the Rangers, yielding 7 ER in just 4 2/3 innings of work to witness his ERA rise from 2.47 to 3.40. Prior to last night, Weaver had been successful this season partly thanks to a significantly higher K/9 rate of 10.41 compared to 7.74 and 7.42 marks in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The right hander had also done a better job of limiting the long ball (0.88 HR/FB) and had improved his GB/FB ratio (0.91 in ’10 compared to 0.61 in ’09). While the K/9 will probably decrease, the rest of Weaver’s key indicators are sustainable and his fantasy owners should be in for consistently excellent performances for most of 2010.
Aaron Hill – The Blue Jays’ second baseman connected for a 3-run HR, his 4th of the season, on Tuesday in an 11-2 win over the Twins. After mashing 28 HRs in his first 4 major league seasons, Hill exploded for 36 last year and finished with 340 Total Bases. It seemed obvious he would regress in 2010 but, so far, Hill’s been much worse than his owners could have ever imagined. He entered Tuesday’s game with just a .173/.308/.316(!) slash line and was swinging at nearly 31% of pitches outside the strike zone. After posting an ISO of .213 in ’09, Hill’s .143 mark this season is much closer to his career .149 ISO. Part of Hill’s struggles can be attributed to a spike in his infield fly ball rate (23% in ’10 compared to 12% in ’09) and an absurdly low BABIP of .184. Once both these indicators stabilize, Hill’s power and batting average will return, although I wouldn’t expect more than 20 HRs during the remainder of this season.
Shaun Marcum – Shaun Marcum continued his successful 2010 campaign on Tuesday by holding the Twins to just 1 ER on 5 Hits in 7 innings. With the strong outing, Marcum’s season ERA and WHIP sit at 2.61 and 0.97, respectively. By following the tried-and-true formula of limiting walks (1.96 BB/9), keeping the ball in the yard (0.82 HR/FB) and inducing groundballs (1.15 GB/FB), Marcum has 8 Quality Starts in 9 tries. The .241 BABIP and 79% LOB% probably aren’t sustainable but even if those indicators regress, the Blue Jays’ right hander is an excellent No. 3 SP option in most league formats.
Vernon Wells – The Blue Jays’ outfielder hit his 11th HR of the season on Tuesday and finished 2-for-3 with 2 Runs and 2 RBI. After scorching the ball in April to the tune of a 1.126 OPS, Wells has predictably returned to mediocrity by recording a .772 OPS in May entering Tuesday’s game. Wells’ ISO continues to remain around an unsustainable .300 mark and his SLG% is 206 points higher than a year ago (.606 in ’10 compared to .400 in ’09), so I continue to encourage his fantasy owners to sell high. At 31-years old and with an OPS in the .700-range in two of the past three seasons, there aren’t many reasons to believe Wells will continue his power surge.
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