We have a good pitching matchup tonight in the Inner Harbor when Jeremy Guthrie and Dallas Braden lock horns. Guthrie has strung together three straight quality starts and he has been outstanding in his last two, giving up 2 earned runs in 14 IP to lower his ERA to 3.86. He has pitched well but he’s has also been a bit lucky on a couple of fronts.
Guthrie has posted a stingy .244 OBA (.261 career) due in large part to an unsustainably favorable .259 BHIP%. He also has shaved his HR/9 to 1.08, down from 1.58 last year and 1.28 career. That is due in large part to a favorable 8.9% HR/FB which is almost two full percentage points better than his career average. Once place he has simply been better is in his control where he’s cut his walk rate to 1.54/9, over a full walk lower than his career average. That’s not luck, but I’m thinking it is probably unsustainable as well.
Less walks plus less hits, means less baserunners which means less runs allowed. It’s all pretty simple. But it says here that he is going to allow hits at a higher rate, and walk more batters, and give up more home runs … all of which means more runs allowed. Guthrie is a certainly a viable AL starter and deserves a good look in deeper mixed leagues. He should be in your lineup tonight and he seems to have rebounded from a tough 2009. I’m just saying this is probably as good as he’s going to be this year. It’s much more likely he’ll get marginally worse.
Tonight’s Rangers starter against the Royals, Rich Harden is 2-0 lifetime against the Royals with a 1.78 ERA over 30.1 IP, although this year he gave up 2 runs in 5 IP vs. KC in his only start against them on 6 hits and 2 BB while striking out 3 .
Harden’s fastball is averaging 90.6 this year as opposed to 93.0 lifetime, and 92.1 last year. His change has also seen a 1.8 mph drop off which quite possibly indicates structural problems here. His K rate, predictably has dropped this year over 2.0/9 to 8.8/9 but the big issue is his walk rate which has leapt to a stunning 6.6/9. That makes his 4.0/9 career rate look stingy by comparison. Opponents are hitting .250 off him, up .28 points from his career OBA. There’s also a startling jump in Harden’s contact rate (% of swings that opponents make contact) which stands at 81.2% this year up from 67.3% last year and 72.9% lifetime.
These stats would seem to plot a physical problem. It may be minor and/or subtle, and he may not yet be talking about it to anyone including the Rangers, but it’s hard to escape the conclusion he’s pitching hurt. His 4.74 ERA has been masked by a 77.7% LOB%. Although Rich’s LOB rates are traditionally and consistently high, he may not currently have the punch out ability to sustain this level. His numbers could be, and perhaps even should be, worse. Rich is a very risky play right now, although tonight’s start may be one of his better plays. If you have a comparable alternative you should use him until either we find out Rich is hurt or he gets healthy and/or whole again.
The Blue Jays jettisoned Dana Eveland on Tuesday and recalled reliever David Purcey, indicating that they will go with four starters this week. That lines Ricky Romero up for an unexpected second start against the Orioles on Sunday if the Jays don’t make a move that includes Brian Tallet.
Romero is 1-1, 1.93 lifetime against tonight’s opponents, the Angels and Baltimore on Sunday would appear to be a favorable matchup as well. Opponents are hitting just .209 off of Rickey with a favorable .284 BHIP. Last year with a .325 BHIP% Rickey posted a .277 OBA. Ricky is also benefitting from a highly favorable 77% LOB% but his WHIP still indicates a sub-3.50 ERA, and that ain’t bad.
It’s hard to pin down what’s behind his 9.1/9 K rate which is up from 7.1 last year. His average fastball velocity is actually a tick down from last year, but he is fooling batters more. He has hitters chasing outside the zone 29.8% of the time this year as opposed to 24.0% last year and his overall contact rate is down nearly 6 percentage points to 74.1%. Either he’s developed a little more movement or his command has improved. Either way Ricky looks like a good play this week and an emerging factor in the AL.
Brandon Wood could be headed to the “We have no idea what’s wrong with him so let’s just say he’s hurt and let him think about what he’s done” disable list with a “hip flexor strain”. This is a.k.a “he’s out of options but we’d like to see him get his mojo back against some minor league pitching” gambit.
Wood is hitting .156/.168/.213 this year with a ridiculous 0.06 BB/K. He is also chasing out of the zone an equally ridiculous 41.2% of the time. He is a mess. The fact that there seems to be a lot of mental aspects to this suggests he could possibly rebound, at least in theory, but you are forgiven if that seems like a tough bet to make right now.
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