Carlos Lee (OF—Astros) Now this is just getting silly. Five games ago in a contest against San Diego, Carlos Lee hit his 2nd home run of the year and it finally appeared that his season long slump was about to end. What's Spanish for big tease? Is it El Caballo? OK, I know “ El Caballo” means “the horse”, but right now Lee is looking more like a donkey. Since the home run, Lee is 1-for14 and his average has dipped back below .200 again and is now gathering dust at .192. It would be nice to say that Lee is just getting unlucky. But his LD rate is at 12%, so it's no wonder his BHIP is just .217. He also seems to be pressing and expanding his strike zone considerably. For his career, he swings at pitches out of the zone at a rate of 23.3% This season that number has escalated up to 31.6%. Further indication that he is pressing is that he simply is not taking his walks as his EYE is down at 0.37 compared to a career EYE of 0.61. But the deal with Lee is that he should be a guy who will bat close to .300 and should be good for 30 home runs. It's tough to sit a guy like that but after last week's false alarm with the one home run, you might want to give Lee a rest on your bench until he figures this out. But when he does, he will probably turn it around fast and make up for considerable lost time. You don't want him on the bench for that.
Oliver Perez (SP—Mets) A couple of starts ago, Oliver Perez almost, not quite, but almost had me believing that he might actually be coming around to becoming a serviceable pitcher. But in his last two outings he has completely fallen off the wagon. In his last two starts he has pitched only 3.1 innings in both of them. The first one he allowed 7 walks (shocker) and Friday's outing he allowed 7 ER while allowing 4 home runs. Yes, some credit does go to Ollie for having only allowed 1 home run prior to that, but when Ollie does poorly, he really goes all out. His ERA now stands at a hefty 5.94 and has 7.5 walks per nine innings which exceeds his strikeout rate. Opponents have an OBP against Perez of .401 and what's really scary is that this has all happened with Perez having a pretty good LD% of 16.9%. So what happens when that line drive rate goes up? OK, so all bets are off. Perez is, has been and remains a hazard to any fantasy team. Stay away. Stay far, far away. Believe me, if the Mets weren't paying Perez $12M a year, they would be doing the same thing.
Andrew McCutchen (OF—Pirates) It’s tough to argue with perfection, but that’s exactly the kind of day Andrew McCutchen had as he had his first 5 hit game of his career and torched the Chicago Cub pitchers. It was already a sweet day for McCutchen, definitely one to write home about. He had 4 hits and a couple of stolen bags going into the 9th inning but he topped it off with a home run just for good measure. The earlier games this week seemed to indicate that McCutchen was slowing down as he was 1-for-12 going into Friday’s game. He’s average slipped down to .310, but Friday’s game gave him a boost sparking his batting back up to .336. For the most part, McCutchen has provided consistent offensive output. His BHIP is somewhat elevated at .356 compared to his 18% line drive rate, so the current average may be difficult to maintain. But McCutchen should still hit close to or around .300 for the season and he will help with runs, stolen bases and should hit around 20-25 home runs. His RC/27 is a healthy 7.0 which reflects his overall offensive contributions. If you were having doubts that he was entering a cold spell, rest easy. McCutchen seems to be heating up once again.
Carlos Zambrano (SP—Cubs) The plan was simple. Carlos Zambrano wasn’t getting it done in the rotation. So manager Lou Piniella sent Zambrano to the bullpen to work out whatever issues he was having. The more success Zambrano had working in relief, the sooner the Cubs would be able to get their $18 M starter back in the rotation. As simple as the plan may have been, the execution has been pretty spotty. Friday, Zambrano entered the game against the Pirates with a tie score and promptly allowed a 3-run home run to Garret Jones that tagged the loss on Big-Z. Currently, Zambrano’s ERA stands at 7.07 and his blood pressure stands at 140/100. In fact, as a reliever, Zambrano’s appearances have been hot and cold not unlike his personality. Correlation? You decide for yourself but in eight appearances coming out of the bullpen, Zambrano has a 0-1 record, 2 holds and a 6.23 ERA with opponents batting .366 against him. The consistency that Piniella was looking for seems within grasp and then quickly goes away. It would seem unlikely that the Cubs are going to get Zambrano back into the rotation any time soon with today’s outing. Even when they do, at this juncture, it would be a risky play to move him off your bench.
Aaron Harang (SP—Reds) Despite taking his 5th loss on Friday night, there's a lot to like about the direction that Aaron Harang is heading. For one, he maintained his ERA from his previous outing but it's been lowering pretty steadily over the past 4 starts. Second, although it wasn't a quality start on Friday, Harang has pitched 3 quality outings in a row prior to that. Another positive sign is that Harang has K/BB ration 4:1. But his biggest issue this year is that batters are hitting .315 against him and he's been susceptible to the long ball. But despite giving up 9 home runs this year, Harang had a FIP of 4.38 going into Friday's game which is much better than his 6.02 ERA and he' been really done in with a strand rate of only 63.2%. The velocity on his fastball has been better than in years notching in at around 91mph and he his CT% is the best on his career right now at 79%. It's been tough to consider Harang anything but a low-end option with such an awful start to the season, but it does appear that he is starting to put the pieces together. Keep on eye on him in his next start or two and if he shows the same improvement, he could be a nice pick up going forward.
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