Johan Santana - To piggyback onto Drew's comment of a few weeks ago, here are a few more stats that illustrate the decline of one of the better pitchers of this generation: his contact% against has risen to its highest ever (80.4%, third straight increase), his swinging strike% has dropped to its lowest level ever (9.6%...down 15% from last year's level and the third straight decline), and his average FB velocity is down around 89 (fourth straight decline). If he were still in the AL I would be willing to bet that his ERA would be around 4.00 right now, but the friendly league and environs are masking the decline quite a bit. I've quoted Branch Rickey a lot lately, but better to deal a guy a year too early than a year too late. I'd certainly consider it, particularly if you can get ace-level value for him.
Raul Ibanez - After a one year aberration, it looks like the old Ibanez is back. Last season he really seemed to take advantage of his home park, looking to drive the ball much more than he had in the past, which resulted in increased FB rates, swinging strike%, and of course, HR. This season his contact rate, swinging strike%, ISO, LD%, etc. are all back much closer to their career norms, which should be a positive at age 38. Unfortunately, Ibanez has had terrible luck on balls in play this season, posting a BABIP about 70 points underneath expectations given his LD%. Combined with the lack of last year's power makes it look badly for him, but in reality it's regression and bad luck combined. If you're expecting last year's version of Ibanez you're likely to endure year-long disappointment, but expecting 50 more points of AVG (and a bit more pop, of course) should be reasonable.
Seth Smith - Smith's age-27 season has been cause for optimism thus far, as he's added a bit more power, bumped up his contact rate again, and is offering significant value despite a BABIP that's about 70 points light of expectations currently. He's definitely settled into the good part of a platoon in the Rockie OF, and is worth using in all but the most shallow of formats.
John Axford - Axford did indeed get the next save chance for Milwaukee, and he managed to strike out the side for the save.....while allowing three hits, a walk, and a run. Axford fanned 98 men in 76 innings between four levels last season and has an avg FB velocity of 95.5, but he also has horrible control. Sounds like an exciting proposition, plus he has an excellent mustache. Axford is worth adding if you're in the desperate search for saves, but it probably won't be boring.
Rod Barajas - Find a Met fan and sell them Barajas, as they are completely irrational about this guy right now. Barajas basically does nothing but hit doubles and homers (17 of those vs. 16 singles), and even as "hot" as he's been his OBP is still under .300. He's hitting a whopping 70% of balls in the air, so if they don't go over or off the fence there isn't much chance of a hit, and unlike last year there isn't really any expected positive regression in the .229 BABIP due to an 11% LD rate. The 34 year old doesn't suddenly have a new level of performance, so selling him at his highest value would be prudent.
