Brandon Morrow:
It’s time to start taking Brandon Morrow very seriously. I’ve been skeptical that Morrow could ever consistently command the strike zone but hat tip to our own Mike Leone who has stood by him all year. Morrow’s K Rate has been amongst the leaders in major league baseball all season long and his GB Rate has been adequate at 43% but some shaky command (5.00 BB/9 for most of the season) and poor luck (BABIP over .330, LOB% below 70) has led to volatile performance patterns (4 disaster starts, 9 starts of less than 2 ER’s in 15 total starts). It appeared obvious that once he got the command under control the boatload of K’s would translate to some tremendous results. While I was skeptical he’d ever find the command Morrow’s proven me wrong of late. Over his last 8 starts he’s walked 3 or less in 7 of them, including each of his last 5 outings. In those 5 outings he’s posted a 27:10 K:BB Ratio in 34 IP while posting a 1.32 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Not only has the production been magnificent but its come against a pretty tough schedule including NYY, STL, TB, @COL. While there’s always potential for some disastrous outings when Morrow’s command falters, the improved consistency and the immense upside means he needs to be owned in all formats.
Brennan Boesch:
As an analyst one of the easiest pitfalls to fall into is forming an initial opinion and then becoming stubborn with the opinion without re-evaluating new data. Since I’m sensitive to this I try to continue to re-evaluate guys I’ve taken firm stances on if their production continues to go counter to my opinion. This has been the case with Brennan Boesch as I keep trying to see how he’s maintaining not only his fantastic production but the consistency with that production. Boesch is now working on 2 full months of an OPS above .950 and is actually improving, posting an OPS above 1.000 here in June. So as I take a 2nd look at the peripherals we see a 16% LD Rate has generated a BABIP above .380 and outside Swing % of 44% and a K Rate of 20%. Even if we take away Boesch’s minor league track record (.434 career Slugging %) and hone in on just this season when Boesch posted a ridiculous .379/.455/.621 at AAA, his major league performance just doesn’t add up with the components. A 16% LD and 44% GB Rate should yield a BABIP around .310 not .380 and a GB Rate of 44% shouldn’t yield an XBH Rate of over 15% like he’s posted. His weak discipline and reliance on making contact outside the zone should also inhibit the power as he’s forced to reach and expand to make contact. It’s not like Vlad Guerrero who showed elite contact skills and great BB:K Rates because of it, so you wouldn’t expect an elite batting average. Two full months into this run at the major league level and I’m legitimately miffed. I’ll stand by my original assessment and suggest I just don’t see how this production can continue, but owners might as well ride the hot streak while you can. My apologies if I lead you in the wrong direction and you’ve missed out on Boesch’s great run, but I still think this is more mirage than reality.
Jason Kubel:
We’re starting to see a big rebound in Jason Kubel’s power performance here in June. Back in the middle of May I noted Kubel had actually improved his plate discipline but the power outage (Kubel’s primary skill) was eroding all his value as a fantasy asset. After posting an 11% XBH Rate in May, Kubel’s followed it up with a 12% rate here in June that includes his 4th HR of the month (launched Sunday). The run production hasn’t been great (8 Runs, 11 RBIs), but with the power coming back and Kubel’s prime lineup positioning (hitting behind Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer) he looks like a tremendous pickup for the 2nd half. The EYE is in line with last season as is the LD Rate and his FB Rate is actually up. With the skills actually showing mild improvement over last season’s .300-73-28-103, Kubel could put up a monstrous 2nd half; somewhere along the lines of .300-35-15-50. With Kubel available in far too many leagues there is a whole lot of upside here for very little risk. Owners should look to the waiver wire to see if Kubel’s available and pounce if they’re in need of power and RBI production.
Max Scherzer:
Scherzer was once again quite good on Saturday shutting out the Braves for 5 2/3 innings and limiting them to just 3 hits. He did walk 4 but continued to show his great K potential, striking out 8. Since his recall he’s now struck out 49 in just 36 2/3 innings while posting a 2.95 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. The BB’s have still been a minor problem (15 in 36 2/3 innings) but Scherzer has been phenomenal running through OAK, KC, CHA, WSH, ARZ, ATL. One thing you’ll notice taking a quick glance at that schedule is its not exactly filled with giant killers. It’s worth noting, but given the enormous K Rate and Scherzer’s increased velocity since returning, I think he needs to be owned in all formats. The BB’s and the struggles in the AL prior to the demotion still linger a bit in my head, but the type of K’s he produces simply don’t grow on trees. Something around a 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 seems like a reasonable projection going forward.
Dayan Viciedo:
With Omar Vizquel red hot we haven’t seen much of Viciedo since his call-up, getting just 8 AB’s and two starts since being called up on the 18th. Viciedo has shown some intriguing pop at the minor league level, knocking out 14 HR’s and 14 2B’s in just 238 AAA AB’s before the call-up. Power is a good skill to take to Cellular Field in the summer, but along with the good power comes some atrocious plate discipline. Viciedo struck out in 23% of his AAA AB’s and drew just 8 walks (3%) while posting a .290/.329/.525 line at AAA. Looking ahead, Viciedo should be a contributor in AL Only leagues where the pop (8-10 HR potential rest of the way) will play, but playing time concerns and ultimately some serious batting average risk (would be surprised if he cracked .275) driven by the poor plate discipline will keep him off your radars in mixed formats. For those in keeper leagues the 21 year old has some nice long-term value with little competition at 3B for the White Sox and good power skills. His weak EYE will prevent him from becoming a star but a .280-25-90 type hitter in his prime is a reasonable expectation. AL Only and dynasty type formats there’s some value here, but owners in mixed leagues and particularly redraft leagues will want to take a wait-and-see approach.
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