Doug Fister – The Seattle right hander will come off the DL today (shoulder fatigue) and face the Brewers in Milwaukee. Fister has been a pleasant surprise for the Mariners and his fantasy owners this season, posting a 2.45 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 69 innings of work. Last season, Fister had a 4.13 ERA, 5.10 FIP, 5.31 K/9, 2.21 BB/9 and 1.62 HR/9 during his 11 starts with the big league club. While his K/9 (4.13) is down in ’10, Fister has improved his BB/9 (1.29) and HR/9 (0.65) while significantly increasing his GB% to 52% from 41% in ’09. It’s obvious that Fister is making adjustments as he’s drastically altered his pitch selection in ’10. He’s throwing 15% more fastballs and 11% fewer changeups. With a fastball at 88 mph, I assume the pitch has downward sink which is inducing all those groundballs. In AAA, Fister was successful using the same formula he’s using in the majors – few walks and HRs with a lot of groundballs. I’m not convinced he can sustain his current success (he’s certainly not going to finish the season with a sub-.300 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP), but Fister has a decent track record in the minors of pitching to contact so it’ll be very interesting to see how the rest of 2010 unfolds for the young right hander.
Josh Hamilton – The Rangers’ outfielder continues to crush everything thrown at him as he picked up 3 more Hits Friday, finishing the game with 3 TBs and 1 RBI. Hamilton is in some kind of zone right now as he entered Friday’s game with an almost unfathomable .488/.511/.895 (that’s a 1.406 OPS, by the way) to go along with 8 HR and 26 RBI in June. For the season, Hamilton has an ISO of .277 (previous career high is .262 in ’07) and an OPS of 1.010. However, part of Hamilton’s success is due to an incredibly high and unsustainable BABIP of .393 (compared to a career BABIP of .301) which is helping keep Hamilton’s BA at .345. As for the power, Hamilton does have a career ISO of .227 so while the .277 mark is high, it’s not unreasonable to think he’ll maintain most of his current power. Fantasy owners that bought low on Hamilton are looking pretty smart right now.
Gordon Beckham – The White Sox infielder bashed his 2nd HR of the season Friday against the Cubs and finished the game 1-for-2 with 2 RBI. Beckham has been downright awful in 2010 with a .521 OPS, 0.052 ISO and an EYE mark of just 0.40. Beckham is swinging at 7% more pitches outside the strike zone and is falling behind in the count 0-1 in 62% of his ABs compared to the MLB average of 58%. But the biggest question surrounding Beckham is the complete loss of power. He has just 11 extra base hits in 263 plate appearances which may be caused from a drastic ground ball % increase of 9% and decrease in his fly ball% by 9%. With so many more balls on the ground, Beckham’s power has dwindled. He still has plenty of time to turn around this dreadful season but for the foreseeable future he should remain on the free agent wire.
Carl Pavano – Carl Pavano takes the hill today and faces the New York Mets on the road. Through 96 innings this season, Pavano has some impressive numbers – a 3.96 ERA and 1.08 WHIP to go along with 8 Wins. However, delving deeper into the numbers tells an interesting story about Pavano. The right hander’s K/9 is actually down to 5.14 (compared to a 6.64 mark in ’09), his BABIP has dropped to .267 (from .335 in ’09) and his LOB% has risen from 67% in ’09 to 73% this season. So while Pavano has posted almost identical FIP rates the past two seasons – 4.00 in ’09/4.05 in ’10 – his ERA is 1.44 lower this season. It doesn’t seem that Pavano is doing much differently in ’10 compared to ’09 – he’s simply catching more breaks than he did a year ago. For his career, Pavano has a 4.17 FIP so his current performance is certainly sustainable. The low strikeout numbers are a problem for fantasy owners but Pavano should be able to provide your team with consistently solid ERA, WHIP and Wins against average to weak-hitting opponents and is consequently worth a look in deep AL- and mixed leagues.
Jake Peavy – The White Sox continued their torrid pace by beating up the Cubs Friday behind another outstanding performance from Jake Peavy. Peavy threw 7 innings and allowed just 3 Hits and 2 Walks while striking out 9 to lower his season ERA and WHIP to 4.71 and 1.22, respectively. After an awful start to the season, Peavy is beginning to resemble his old self as he’s tossed three straight Quality Starts and has picked up 3 straight Wins. As bad as he’s been for most of ’10, Peavy entered Friday’s start with a respectable FIP of 4.27 and 1.26 WHIP and had actually lowered his BB/9 slightly compared to last season (2.83 in ’10/3.01 in ’09). The biggest concern is Peavy’s K/9 which has dropped from 9.74 in ’09 to just 7.51 this season. However, in his last three starts Peavy has struck out 21 batters in 23 innings and appears to have righted the ship. Don’t forget Peavy has posted an ERA over 4.00 just once in the past 6 seasons so his track record indicates you should buy low and enjoy what should be a strong second half from the former Padre.
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