Randy Wolf: Wolf has been a big disappointment, 5-7 with a 4.92 ERA, and his declining skill set is the reason, 2009.2010 K/9’s 6.7/5.3, BB/9’s 2.4/4.6, and GB%’s 40%/41%. He has been getting killed by the HR ball, 18 allowed in 97 innings after allowing 24 in 214.1 innings last year. Even though his HR/FB is spiking, 2009/2010 #’s 9%/14%, it is hard to chalk this up to bad luck, as 12 of his HR have been by right-handed batters and 12 have been at home, which is not a park that favors right-handed batting power. Basically, his control is poor and when he gets it over the plate, hitters are crushing it. This is not someone you want on your fantasy roster.
Buster Posey: In his first 25 games with the Giants this year, it has been a mixed bag for Posey. He is making outstanding contact, 90% Ct%, which is helping to produce a solid .293 BA. However, he is not hitting for any power, 1 HR and 4 doubles in 97 PA, or showing any plate patience, 4% BB%. Considering that his Ct% in Triple-A was in 83% for 200/2010, don’t expect the high Ct% to last, which means his BA could be heading south. There is time for the 23-year-old to develop his power, but it doesn’t look like it is coming in the near future, 54% GB% and a 4% HR/FB%.
Jon Garland: With his skill set, 5.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, and a 52% GB%, it is hard to buy into Garland’s current 3.13 ERA. A 78% S% and a .242 BHIP tell you some ERA correction could be on its way. If he could improve his control, he would have a nice skill set, however his history says that any improvement in control will likely be accompanied by a decline in his dominance, 2007/2008/2009 K/9’s 4.2/4.1/.4.8 and BB/9’s 2.5/2.7/2.7.
Tim Hudson: Hudson has been great this year, 8-3 with a 2.37, with an unbelievable 68% GB%, but not so-great command, 4.3 K/9 and a 3.4 BB/9. It is hard for any pitcher to maintain that kind of a GB% and if it comes down, the combination his luck normalizing, 83% S% and a .206 BHIP%, and the command leaves him open to substantial ERA risk. There may never be a better time to sell high on Hudson.
Randy Wells: Wells’ surface numbers are not good, 3-6 with a 4.96 ERA, but there is nothing wrong with his skills, 7.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, and a 45% GB%. His 66% S% would usually imply bad luck, but his BHIP% is a normal .289%. His BA against with runners on, .331 BA vs. .261 with the bases empty, means the problem may be an inability to pitch effectively from the stretch. This is one pitcher that you may want to avoid trying to catch a normalizing strand rate for ERA upside.
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