Stephen Strasburg – The Nationals’ phenom draws the Indians this afternoon looking to follow up his major league debut performance when he whiffed 14 Pirates in 7 innings of 2-run ball. The Indians’ offense is putrid this season but comes into Sunday’s game on a hot streak, scoring 33 runs in the past 4 games. While he’s unlikely to continue with an 18.00 K/9 and 0.00 BB/9 for the rest of the season, Strasburg showed the baseball world last Tuesday that he was, in fact, the real deal. His fastball averaged 97.8 mph, his curveball averaged 82.2 mph and his “change up” came in at 90.3 mph. Those numbers don’t include the ridiculous movement he had on all three pitches which made the Pirates look silly all day. If Strasburg gets in a jam, it’ll because of his inexperience in setting up hitters rather than his pure stuff. In his debut, Strasburg fell in love with his off-speed pitches a bit much in the 4th inning which resulted in 3 hits, including a Delwyn Young 2-Run HR. We’ll see if he makes any adjustments during his second career start.
Chase Utley – The Phillies’ second baseman had just a .260 BA and 26 RBI entering Saturday’s game against the Red Sox. However, Utley hasn’t been as bad as some might believe. He’s still posting an ISO over .200, (.207 in ’10 compared to a career .226 mark) has improved his K% (14% in’10 compared to 18% for his career) and is walking more than ever (14% BB% would be highest of his career). Utley is suffering partly from a BABIP that’s 54 points below his career average as well as fewer RBI opportunities with Jimmy Rollins out of the lineup for most of the season. Once Rollins returns and the BABIP adjusts itself, Utley should see a surge in his overall numbers. If you own Utley, continue to be patient and you should be rewarded soon.
Cole Hamels – The Phillies’ lefty toes the rubber against the Red Sox today in search of his 6th Win in 2010. Hamels may have a 3.98 ERA in 2010 but he’s actually experiencing his worst MLB season judging by his 4.64 FIP. Consider that Hamels has never recorded an FIP higher than 3.98, which occurred during his rookie season in 2006, and you can see why his fantasy owners should be alarmed. While the lefty has improved his K/9 from 7.81 in ’09 to 8.71 in ’10, he’s also posted a 3.11 BB/9 rate in ’10 after recording a 2.00 BB/9 mark last season. Hamels has enjoyed an 80% LOB% (compared to 72% in ’09) while allowing 13 HRs in just 72 innings (1.62 HR/9). This marks the second straight season Hamels has been a second tier fantasy starter and most of his indicators are pointing in the wrong direction.
Jonny Gomes – The Reds’ outfielder connected for two HRs and drove in 6 during Cincinnati’s 11-5 victory over Kansas City on Saturday. Gomes has been a pleasant surprise for his fantasy owners in 2010, posting a .307 BA and .919 OPS with 9 HRs and 47 RBI. A .357 BABIP has inflated the BA this season, especially when you consider Gomes’ career mark is just .247. Interestingly, Gomes is actually posting an ISO 64 points lower than last season when he hit 20 HRs in 281 ABs. Now getting regular ABs, Gomes is flourishing. Despite swinging at a whopping 36% of pitches outside the strike zone, Gomes has actually improved his K% from 30% in ’09 to 26% this season. If you can acquire Gomes from an owner who doesn’t believe he’ll sustain his current numbers, go for it. While I expect the BA to decrease, the power numbers are real and Gomes could definitely reach 25-30 HRs and 100 RBI by season’s end.
Hunter Pence – The Houston outfielder connected for his 10th HR of the season Saturday and finished 1-for-4 against the Yankees. After a dreadful April where he hit just .232/.250/.329, Pence heated up in May to the tune of .302/.333/.519 with 6 HRs and 16 RBI. He’s found middle ground in June, posting a .222/.364/.361 prior to Saturday’s game. For the season, Pence has drastically improved his K%, dropping from last year’s 18% to just 12% in ’10. Unfortunately, he’s also cut his BB% from 9% in ’09 to just 6.3% in ’10. The most alarming stat for Pence’s owners is his ISO, which has dropped for three straight seasons from .217 in ’07 to .197 in ’08 to .190 in ’09 to just .161 this season. Until Pence can improve his BB% and find consistent power, he’s a bench player in most fantasy league formats.
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