Nick Swisher OF (NYY) – Swisher is at the peak of his fantasy value right now. That’s not to say he is going to fall off anytime soon, it’s just to say everything is coming together for him. He is in a star studded Yankee lineup and playing everyday. His on base skills (.371/.367 OBP the past two seasons, 13.4 career BB%) lead to a lot of runs scored in a lineup with a lot of run producers. The team’s high OBP leaves Swisher with a lot of RBI opportunities, which is key for a guy who has posted high ISO’s of .249 and .232 in each of the past two seasons. Also, the HR friendly Yankee stadium is a good fit for the FB hitting Swisher and should prevent him from experiencing too many power droughts. Swisher has a career 45.6 FB%. My only concern for Swisher right now is an increased chase percentage and first strike percentage. After never chasing more than 19% of pitches outside of the strike zone, Swisher is now swinging at balls 26.3% of the time. Partially as a result, he is getting a first pitch strike on him about 5 percentage points more than normal. This has not led to Swisher K’ing any more than usual, but it could in the future. Hopefully Swisher reverses these habits, or at least prevents them from getting worse, as his FPI is on the rise (.52/.65/.73), and he is in a situation that should allow him to continue to post a .73 FPI.
Ricky Romero SP (TOR) – The Jays inked Romero to an expensive 5 year extension, but I think the 25 YO southpaw is worth it. I may have been overly anxious in anointing Romero earlier in the season, but he has solid peripherals that are on the rise. His 2.40 K/BB ratio this season combined with his 54% career ground ball rate make him a solid fantasy option. His increase in K/9 from 7.13 to 7.76 and decrease in BB/9 from 3.99 to 3.24 in just his second season show that Romero is a pitcher on the rise. Also, Romero has gotten batters to chase pitches outside of the zone 28.9% of the time compared to 23.8% of the time last season, while throwing first pitch strikes 58.3% of the time, up from 56.9% a year ago. Those two numbers could indicate a further improvement in the near future of Romero’s K/9.
Alex Rodriguez 3B (NYY) – A-Rod had himself quite the day, going 4-5 with 3 homers and 5 RBI and adding in a SB for good measure. However, owners must be slightly disappointed with his season on the whole. A-Rod entered yesterday’s game with a .262/.333/.466 line (AVG/OBP/SLG), which pales in comparison to his career line: .303/.387/.466. A closer look shows that Rodriguez’s fantasy stock has been dropping pretty steadily the past few seasons. Here are his FPI’s (fantasy production indicator) since 2007: .94/.83/.79/.63. I think we are seeing the combination of a few things at work here: stoppage in PED use, age related decline and flat out just an off season. A-Rod is not the A-Rod of old, but don’t forget that last item I mentioned about this just being an off season. A-Rod has been very unlucky in terms of his batting average as his singles average of .216 is well below his previous three year average of .263. Note that his singles averages were very consistent over that time: .260/.265/.264. So, there’s certainly reason to think A-Rod’s average should see a steady climb over the rest of the season, and his three homers yesterday are a sign his career low (by a lot) 13.9 HR.FB% is normalizing. A-Rod should see a turnaround in his fantasy production sooner rather than later, but his declining FPI as well as declining ISO’s over the same period (.331/.271/.245/.204) indicate he is not the player he once was.
Brian Duensing P (MIN) – Duensing tossed a shutout last night, and after having a dominating year in the pen, he has gone 5 straight starts without giving up more than 3 ER. I have my doubts as to how long that will last, though. In his 5 starts, Duensing has struck out only 15 batters while walking 7. That gives him an extremely low K rate and K/BB ratio barely over 2. Yes his 52.4% GB rate is nice, but when Duensing’s .259 BABIP and 84.3% LOB% normalize his decreased dominance as a starter will only add to the inevitable damage that is going to be place on his ERA.
Joba Chamberlain RP (NYY) – For those of you in leagues that count holds, grab Chamberlain if he’s available as a previous owner may have become disenchanted with his ERA. The fact is Joba really has not pitched poorly. His ERA may sit at 5.04, but his 2.96 FIP is much more indicative of both his skill set and how he’s pitched. His K rate is getting back up to where it was prior to the Yankees trying him out as a starter. Simultaneously, his walks have dropped leaving Joba with a very good 9.54 K/9 and solid 2.65 K/BB ratio. His GB% has also risen to 47.9%, and his HR/FB% has dipped down to 6.1%. Both of those numbers resemble the ’08 setup man Joba rather than the ’09 attempted starter Joba. Once Joba’s .362 BABIP (career mark is .326) and 64 LOB% (career mark is 73.4) normalize, his ERA will begin to reflect that Joba still has quality skills out of the bullpen.
