Jose Bautista hit his 40th HR of the season in Monday night’s win over the Yankees, continuing a torrid second half in which he leads the majors in HRs (16), RBI (39), and XBH (25). If you asked in March, most would have been thrilled to get that kind of production from Bautista for the entire season.
Jose has cut his K rate by about 3% but that doesn’t explain this season. And he’s been dragged down by a downright adversarial .239 BHIP%. What he’s doing however, is lifting the ball more, posting a 53.2% flyball rate this year as opposed to 42.1% last year and 45% over his career. He’s also been incredibly fortunate with a staggering 20.8% HR/FB%. That is almost 8 points more than his career average.
I’ll say it … I think this season will stand as a skyscraper in the landscape of Jose’s career when all is said and done. With all due respect to “once a player demonstrates a skill, he owns it”, I would not advise anyone to pay for a 40-HR player in trade this year or in assets next year. I believe we are looking a player on an unrepeatable tear here.
Rich Harden was in full tease mode last night, in his first start back from the DL, throwing 6.2 hitless innings at the Twins while striking out 6, although he did walk 5. Harden was placed on the DL with a sore shoulder, diagnosed as tendinitis, on August 15th.
Three relievers carried the no-hitter into the 9th after Harden’s 111 pitches, and lost the no-hit bid to a Joe Mauer single. Harden walked leadoff hitters in the 4th, 5th and 6th but got DPs in the 5th and 6th to pick him up.
It’s these kind of outings that keep fantasy owners lusting over Harden despite a chronically bad injury history and disturbing record of inconsistency. Don’t expect either of those things to change anytime soon. A lot of things simply fell Harden’s way last night, and his stuff was good. The strategy is still to cherry pick his starts and limit Harden's roll on your roster to that of a 6th starter.
There was lots of drama yesterday surrounding Johnny Damon and the Red Sox. The Sox claimed Damon off waivers but Johnny has the contractual right to refuse to go to Boston. It’s unclear as to whether the Red Sox were claiming him to use, or simply to keep him from the Rays.
The Sox certainly could use his help, and it would be a great story, but Damon is reported to be reluctant to go. Buster Olney believes however that the Sox veterans will convince Damon to accept a trade. Johnny however seemed less convinced last night talking to reporters. He refused to close the door however saying only that he’s leaning towards staying in Detroit. Too bad, it would make for a great story for the rest of the season.
That’s more like it. John Lackey pitched 8 strong innings for the Red Sox on Monday, limiting the M’s to 2 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks while striking out 10. Lackey strung together 3 good starts at the end of July but his struggles resumed in August.
It’s hard to pinpoint the difference in Lackey’s performance in Boston this year. His K rate has taken a hit in Boston but is fastball velocity is fine. He’s averaged 91.2 this year after a 91.6 last year and 91.1 over his career. His chase rate is solid too. He’s getting batters to chase 28.3% which matches his 28.6% from last year. Lackey’s 70.8% LOB% is neutral, he’s throwing a normal rate of GBs and he’s actually had some luck with his HR/FB% (7.2%).
Still, Johns walk rate is up … 3.2/9 this year over his career rate of 2.7/9. That suggests some command issues as in addition to his control problems. Opponents are hitting .290 off John as a result and frankly he hasn’t been all that lucky either, suffered from an unfavorable .328 BHIP%.
There’s nothing obvious here. Lackey hasn’t been sharp and he hasn’t been overly lucky. And while we hope that this is the start of a run of solid starts it’s more likely John’s off season will continue.
