Brandon Morrow SP (TOR) – I’ve been on the Brandon Morrow bandwagon for some time, and he continues to impress me. Yesterday he picked up his 10th victory of the season against the Tigers, allowing just 1 ER over 6 IP with 9 K’s and just 1 BB. I think he makes a great dynasty player, and his somewhat high ERA may skew some people’s thoughts on that. Keep in mind this is his first full season as a starter (was yanked between starting and relieving in Seattle), and he is only 26 YO. Still, Morrow leads the majors in K/9 for a starter with a 10.81 mark. Frankly it’s not even close; Yovani Gallardo is second with a 9.97 mark. He has an FIP of 3.18 (10th best out of all ML starters); his unlucky BABIP (.341) and LOB% (69.1%) have inflated his actual ERA. There are other reasons to be encouraged, too. For one, consistency: in 25 starts, Morrow has struck out 7 or more batters 13 times. Secondly, improvement: His BB/9 of over 4 are his biggest weakness, but in his last 18 starts that number is a much more respectable 3.07. Finally, the Jays have been careful with Morrow, so he should be healthy and ready for a full workload next season. However, we have seen with Strasburg that being careful is not a guarantee a young pitcher’s health. Add all this information up together, and Morrow is an elite find in dynasty/keeper leagues, particularly auction leagues where his salary is most likely low.
Clay Buchholz SP (BOS) – Buchholz allowed only 1 ER in 7.1 IP last night, and the outing should only bolster Buchholz’s CY Young chances. Most voters probably won’t care to read what I am about to write (that 2.21 is awfully bright, shield your eyes!), but Buchholz is far from the AL’s best pitcher this season. He has an FIP of 3.61 and xFIP of 4.21. Those numbers are a bit higher than Buchholz’s actual ERA because Buchholz has a subpar 1.81 K/BB ratio. His ability to generate strikeouts (6.20 K/9) and to prevent free passes (3.42 BB/9) are both just average. He does have an above average GB rate of a 51.6 GB%, but luck has as much to do with his ERA as that does. On balls in play, Buchholz has held opponents to a .265 average, which is 30 points below his career mark. Also, his LOB% of 79.4% is well above his career mark of 73%. Perhaps most luckily Buchholz has allowed only .45 HR/9 thanks to a 5.5 HR/FB%. Now some pitchers do consistently allow a low percentage of HR in comparison to fly balls, but the league average is around 10% and Buchholz’s in ’08 and ’09 was 14.7% and 15.7% respectively.
Daric Barton 1B (OAK) – Barton had a very solid day at the plate. He went 2 for 3 with 4 RS and 2 RBI. His two hits were a homer and a double, and he also walked twice. Barton has all the makings of a solid fantasy 1B. He has an EYE that correlates highly to a .300 BA, as his BB/K ratio sits at an even 1. It’s not a fluke as he posted a 1.04 mark last season. Pair that with a 21.5 LD%, and Barton is as safe as they come in terms of batting average. He entered yesterday tied in 9th with all ML 1st basemen with 29 doubles, and his career FB% of 43.8% is good at a power hitting position. Unfortunately for Barton, though, there is one number that prevents him from taking any sort of leap: his HR/FB%. The average HR/FB% is around 10%, and I’m sure it’s much higher at a power position like 1B. So, what’s Barton’s? A lowly 4.1%, and that number is in decline over his 4 ML seasons: 14.8/5.7/4.5/4.1. Barton is 25, and he is running out of time to show that he has any raw power. Without it he’s fantasy irrelevant, but if he ever did post even a league average HR/FB%, his other numbers (EYE, LD%, FB%) would make him extremely valuable.
Brian Fuentes RP (MIN) – With Fuentes moving to Minnesota, his fantasy value takes a huge hit. Fuentes will have a tough time seeing the 9th inning with Matt Capps and Jon Rauch already entrenched in the Twinkie bullpen. However, in his first action as a Twin, Fuentes did just that. Don’t look too far into it, though. It was a one out save, and Fuentes was brought in just to face the lefty Russell Branyan. I do wonder, though, if Fuentes’ fantasy value isn’t completely dead in deeper leagues. If the Twins face a similar situation again, even with Capps or Rauch in the game, Fuentes could vulture a few saves ending some games facing left handed hitters. On the season, Fuentes has a 1.52 FIP against lefties with 0 HR given up, an 11.91 K/9 and 5 K/BB ratio.
