R.A. Dickey – One of the biggest surprises of 2010, R.A. Dickey looks for win No. 8 on Sunday when he faces off against Roy Halladay and the Phillies. After posting a 4.99 FIP in ’09, Dickey is enjoying an impressive 3.36 mark through 99 innings this season. The difference between ’09 and ’10 is simple. Dickey is maintaining his K/9 (5.82 compared to 5.85 in ’09) while decreasing his BB/9 (2.55 compared to 4.20 in ’09) and HR/9 (0.45 compared to 1.12 in ’09). Just as important, Dickey’s GB% has jumped by 10% from 47% in ’09 to a stellar 57% this season. It’s no surprise when I tell you that his current ERA of 2.36 isn’t sustainable, but Dickey is doing enough things right to make him worth a roster spot in most league formats. That said, for the remainder of the season I’d keep a close watch on his GB%, HR/9 and BB/9 to anticipate any regression in performance.
Paul Maholm – The Pirates’ lefty faces the Rockies today in search of his 8th win in 2010. Maholm posted a solid 3.83 FIP in ’09 but has witnessed that mark increase to 4.32. The reason? His K/9, which was low to begin with at 5.50 last season, has dropped even further to a comical 4.39. Meanwhile, Maholm’s BB/9 is up from 2.77 to 3.22 and his GB% is under 50% for the first time in his career. Most telling, Maholm’s xFIP is a career-high 4.80. It’s also alarming that Maholm’s K/9 has now dropped significantly for three straight seasons while his BB/9 has increased (although he has lowered his HR/9 during the same span). With a career 4.30 FIP mark, Maholm is a league average pitcher with a poor strikeout rate. That should relegate him to the waiver wire in pretty much all league formats.
Jonathan Sanchez – Jonathan Sanchez has recorded some interesting numbers in 2010. He’s enjoying an impressive 3.38 ERA but has earned just 9 Quality Starts in 22 Games Started. Additionally, he’s posting an outstanding 9.75 K/9 but still walks far too many batters with a 4.57 BB/9. Overall Sanchez has improved from last season, at least according to his FIP which is 3.97 compared to 4.17 in ’09. At 28 and in his 5th big league season, Sanchez’s numbers are becoming quite predictable – 40% GB%, 9.50 K/9, 4.75 BB/9 and around 1.00 HR/9. Those are all very solid numbers for a SP in any league format, but don’t think Sanchez’s rapidly decreasing ERA is a sign of vast improvement during the past 3 seasons. His FIP has been consistently in the upper 3.00s or lower 4.00s during this time span.
Francisco Cordero – Last week, I wrote that Francisco Cordero was walking too many batters and it would catch up with him sooner than later. Well, that’s exactly what happened Saturday as Cordero recorded just 1 out and walked 3 batters before getting yanked in favor of Nick Masset. He ended up getting charged with 2 ER to raise his season ERA to 4.11 and WHIP to 1.55. Prior to Saturday, Cordero’s BB/9 was 5.22, his FIP was an ugly 4.39 and he had blown 6 of 30 save chances. In 2009, Cordero thrived thanks to a 0.27 HR/9 and a more manageable 4.05 BB/9 rate despite a drop in his K/9 from 9.98 in ’08 to just 7.83 in ’09. This season, Cordero’s K/9 remains under 8.00 while his HR/9 is up to 0.90. It’s going to be difficult for Cordero to continue to allow so many base runners without repercussions. Fantasy owners relying on saves from Cordero during the upcoming playoffs should invest in some Tums because it’s going to be a rocky road.
Tyler Colvin – The Cubs’ rookie outfielder has struggled so far in August, entering Saturday’s game with an .095 BA and .460 OPS to go along with just 1 HR and 1 RBI. With those struggles in mind, Colvin sat Saturday and won’t play Sunday either, according to manager Lou Pinella. Overall, Colvin is having an excellent rookie campaign with 17 HRs, a .273 ISO and a .527% SLG%. Like most rookies, he isn’t walking enough (7% BB%) and is striking out too much (29%) but he obviously has big league power. Allow Colvin to emerge from this slump and then feel free to insert him back in your lineup as a cheap source of power.
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