Zack Greinke: Greinke traded some dominance for more ground balls, 2009/2010 K/9’s 9.5/7.3, BB/9’s 2.0/2.3, and GB%’s 40%/47%. While the 2009 skill set is preferable, Greinke can succeed with either set. Some of the blame for the rise in ERA can be attributed to big move in his strand rate, 2009/2010 ERA’s 2.16/3.90, S%’s 81%/69%. He will be 27 years of age next year, so he is right in his prime years. Look at this season as a floor with some outstanding upside if he can recapture the 2009 skills.
Josh Beckett: An injury-filled and ineffective 2010 season, 5.83 ERA in just 18 starts, is one Beckett would like to forget. Outside of some erosion in his control, Beckett’s skills remain consistent and well above-average, 2008/2009/2010 K/9’s 8.9/8.4/8.5, BB/9’s 1.8/2.3/3.1, GB%’s 41%/47%/44%. Some really bad luck, 62% S% and a .330 BHIP%, is inflating the ERA and at just 30 years of age, Beckett can easily bounce back into the upper echelon of SP in baseball next year.
Eric Patterson: Patterson has been through some injuries this year and his playing time is limited with the Red Sox, but he is showing a very intriguing power/speed package, 6 HR, 5 triples, 8 doubles, and 8 steals in just 187 PA. He has always had the speed and the power is something new, but it is supported by growth in his underlying numbers, 2009/2009/2010 FB%’s 43%/46%/50% and HR/FB%’s 3%/3%/11%. There is still work to be done, just a 6% BB% and 68% Ct%, but if Patterson lands in the right spot next year, he could really surprise.
Julio Borbon: After making a splash as a rookie last season, 4/20/.312 and 19 for 23 in SB in just 157 AB, Borbon has been a disappointment this year, 3/36/.274 in 380 AB. After being so successful on the basepaths last year, he has taken a big step back, 7 caught steals in 19 attempts. The second-half decline in his contact skills, 88% Ct% in the first-half vs. 84% Ct% in the second-half, makes him a player with little power, no plate patience, 4% BB% and with marginal contact skills for his skill set. He will be just 25 years of age going into next year, so you can’t write him off, but you had to feel a lot better about Borbon going into 2010 than you will going into 2011.
Mitch Maier: The 28-year-old Maier has seen a good amount of playing time this year, but hasn’t shown power or speed, 5/37/.260 with 1 SB in .260 BA. He has a good batting eye, 10% BB%, but his 82% Ct% is too low for someone generating that amount of power. He is already 28 years of age, past the growth stage, so it is hard to believe that he is a significant piece in the Royals 2011 plans.
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