Tim Hudson (SP—Braves) Not surprising that Tim Hudson took it on the chin Friday night. He lasted just 5.2 innings and allowed six earned runs. The guy had it coming. Certainly, Hudson has had a solid year: 200+ innings, opponents hitting just .226 off of him and a WHIP of 1.12. But there had to be a little fall out coming with a 81.7% LOB rate and a FIP of 3.87 which is more than a run higher than his ERA. Plus his K/9 of 5.53 is not setting the world on fire, so he had it coming. Careful not to value Hudson too high for next season. It is unlikely that he will be able to duplicate his efforts next year with as much success as he had this year. He is still a solid option, but owners should curb expectations for 2011.
Adam Dunn (1B/OF—Nationals) Adam Dunn had hit only two home runs in September going into Friday night. This is a drought for Dunn who has 35 long balls on the year. But Friday saw him hit two home runs off of Tim Hudson to double his total for the month. When Dunn gets hot, the homers come in buckets and this may be the perfect timing for fantasy owners to ride Dunn to the home stretch. He has an outside chance to hit the 40 home run plateau and if anyone is capable of getting 3 over the course of one week, it's Dunn. For the most part, Dunn has had his typical season results, home runs, strikeouts, RBI but his walks have been down as he will fail to reach the 100 mark for the first time since 2003. Still, Dunn remains a solid fantasy option going into 2011. Take advantage of him for the rest of the season as he appears to be heating up.
Jason Hammel (SP—Rockies) Joe did a blurb on Jason Hammel just a couple of days ago where he predicted that Hammel would be a risky start going forward because of a “dead arm”. It's true that Hammel has been pretty awful of late with a 7.80 ERA over his last three outings. But let's forget about the rest of this year for a moment and look towards 2011. I'm pretty high on Hammel for next season and there is a lot to like. Yes, he has an elevated ERA of 4.56 but when you compare it to his FIP of 3.53, he has really pitched much better. His 3:1 ratio of strikeouts to walks is very solid and for a guy who is pitching at Coors Field, his HR/9 of 0.80 is not to be ignored. Finally, his LOB% of 68.8% has done him no favors, so we could see some better numbers next season. Keep Hammel in mind on draft day as he could be a promising pick up and have some solid results.
Buster Posey (C—Giants) I have been waiting for Buster Posey to slow down and start to look more like the rookie that he is, rather than the long-time pro he is playing like. But Posey refuses to slow down. OK, maybe is has slowed down just a little this month batting just .290 which has hardly put a dent in his overall batting average of .320. He has six home runs in September with 16 overall and perhaps the most impressive part of what Posey has done this season is his ability to keep his strikeout rate low at 14%. He has struck out just 53 times in 408 at-bats and hasn't shown the typical unfamiliarity with the strike zone that usually comes with rookies. Going into next year, Posey will more than likely break the 20 home run barrier and still provide outstanding hitting. He's a good one and should go high in next year's draft.
Geovany Soto (C—Cubs) With the season about a week away from finishing, let's talk about someone to target for next year that could be overlooked. That player: Geovany Soto. Soto ended his season early with shoulder surgery earlier in the week and jumped back and forth from the DL to active duty more times than a fantasy owner would like. But injuries aside, Soto regained a pretty good power stroke in 2010 that was reminiscent of 2008 when he was ROY. He hit 17 on the year in 322 at-bats for an average of 18.9 at-bats per home run. Better than 2008. More impressive was that with players with more than 300 at-bats, Soto was tied with Adrian Gonzalez for 10th in the N.L. with a wOBA of .385. For next year's draft, owners may shy away from Soto because of health concerns. Granted, this is a very real concern, but he could be a bargain next year if healthy. Keep him on your radar because he should be in the top five of catchers but may not be valued as such.
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