Brandon Belt - The big news today in San Fran is that Brandon Belt has indeed made the Opening Day roster and will be the starting 1B at least until Cody Ross is healthy, pushing Aubrey Huff into RF. Belt has just one minor league campaign under his, um, belt with the Giants, but aside from some lofty K totals there's nothing negative about his game. In 136 games he totaled 76 XBH, hit .352, and even swiped 22 bags. He could be the total package right out of the gate, but the risk here is that the Giants send him back down in order to keep Cody Ross and Aubrey Huff in the lineup once Ross' calf heals. Even with that possibility, Belt is still a must-have in all formats out of the gate....we can all worry about what will happen in a few weeks at that time.
Dodgers LF - With Jay Gibbons experiencing eye trouble and starting the season on the DL, the Dodgers appear set on complementing Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier with a platoon of Marcus Thames and Tony Gwynn Jr. Thames will give you solid pop, particularly against lefties, while Gwynn will kick in a few SBs. Neither player has much upside to speak of. The wild care here, for me anyway, is Xavier Paul. Paul has deserved a shot for a few years now, having spent most of the past three seasons at the AAA level. He's still just 26, and has shown improving power AND contact rates during his AAA time while maintaining an AVG above .300. I don't have to squint too hard to see a 15-10 player with a solid AVG in there. If Paul starts to get consistent time, he's a solid sleeper for me in all NL-formats and deeper mixed leagues.
Scott Hairston - With Jason Bay heading to the DL and Carlos Beltran in his usual state of "questionable" for everyday play, Scott Hairston is looking like more and more of a sleeper in NL formats. Hairston is coming off of the worst season of his career, and since he turns 31 in May it would be easy to say he's already in decline. I think the move to NY will help a lot more than skill deterioration will hurt at this point, and there aren't too many OF's without starting spots that are likely to get more time than Hairston due to the injury histories of the guys he is behind on the depth chart. Hairston could easily offer double-digit homers and steals from, likely, a low-cost of acquisition.
Hiroki Kuroda - Kuroda is a guy who could put up ace-like numbers early in the season for you, as his two-start opening week (ok, 10 days) consists of the Giants at home and the Padres at Petco. Kuroda has been seemingly underrated since entering MLB, yet has bumped his K rate and lowered his FIP ERA in each of the past two seasons. Kuroda is just below an ace-level starter at a mid-rotation guy's price.
Ryan Dempster - Dempster was one off of his career high in K's last season, but a recurrence of his control issues and a steadily decreasing GB% have me a bit concerned about his ability to maintain an ERA under 4.00 here in his age-34 season. That being said, he certainly has an opportunity to get off to a good start as he opens up against the Pirates and the D-Backs, both in what will almost assuredly be a chilly Wrigley Field. Given that schedule, he merits starting in all formats this week.
Javier Vazquez - Due to his extreme flyball tendencies, Javy Vazquez is about as park-dependent as any pitcher in baseball, so his owners have to be thrilled about a move to Florida for 2011. Vazquez did experience a nearly 3% drop in FB velocity last year, something that have to be remedied for a resurgence this season, but as Drew mentioned a few weeks back it is something that the Marlins believe they have solved already. Vazquez has a favorable first week with the Mets and Astros (the latter on the road), so I'd feel comfortable slotting him into the middle of my rotation for those two matchups.
Ricky Nolasco - Well, Nolasco was able to shave a run off of the difference between his FIP ERA and his actual ERA last year, as his FIP ERA was only 0.65 lower as opposed to the 1.71 gap we saw in 2009. Nolasco has excellent control, strikes out a ton of guys, and despite an increase in his GB% last year remains a flyball pitcher in a park friendly to that class of arm. Somehow, Nolasco has been victimized by some rather poor luck for two years running. My hunch is that this is the year that it turns around for the 28 year-old, who is a borderline ace in that park with some good fortune. Starting out against the Mets and the Astros can't hurt him, one would think.
Travis Wood - On one hand with Wood, you've got substantial control improvement and solid K rates in his favor. On the other hand, you have some very favorable BABIP numbers last year (.259 vs. expected .342) and a GB% (30.5%) that would suggest a much higher HR rate than was posted. I expect some fairly substantial regression for Mr. Wood this year, although he should still remain a viable starter in most formats.....just not mid-3.00's ERA viable. I'm leery of his season-opening schedule...home against MIL (who kills LHP) and at ARI isn't something I'm comfortable with. If you have other options, I'd be inclined to use them.
Joe Saunders - Saunders is a borderline start to begin with as a finesse pitcher in Arizona, but opening at COL and home against CIN makes him a clear sit for week 1. Our projection of a 4.84 ERA for 2011 might preclude him from even being worth a roster spot in most formats this year.
