NL Quick Pitch: For today’s quick pitch, we’ll take a look at the up arrows, down arrows, injuries, and recent trends in the National League. I’ll go over why I’m not giving up on guys like Carlos Pena, Ian Desmond and Wandy Rodriguez (yet). Colby Rasmus is really thriving hitting in front of Albert Pujols, but I’m not convinced we’ll see a big uptick in his HR totals for 2011. I’m not surprised Soriano is hitting for power - his AB/HR rates for the last 4 years, despite injuries, have remained solid. Speaking of the long ball, Carlos Pena has as many HRs as I do for 2011 and I really hope his thumb injury isn’t a major cause. Russell Branyan is making a case to get his bat in the lineup everyday in Arizona and if he does, look out. He has Ruthian AB/HR rates when he stays healthy. Moving on to pitching, Big Z has been a serviceable pitcher, but hasn’t shined. His ADP is looking just about right so far. Josh Johnson is getting the Ace recognition he deserves and Aroldis Chapman is now a soft tosser (that may be a bit of an exaggeration, but he has lost 12mph off of his fastball in the past 4 games).
Alfonso Soriano (OF - Cubs) - The power is back for Soriano. He hit his 4th HR of the season last night, a 3-run job off of Wandy Rodriguez, giving him 10 RBI and a .545 SLG to start 2011. Health has been a concern for the 35 year old over the last few years, but he did manage to squeak out 548 PA in 2010. Even with just 117 and 109 games played in the previous two seasons, Soriano still posted good power numbers. Taking a walk down the AB/HR lane, here’s how his power breaks down since joining the Cubbies in 2007: 17.7, 15.6, 23.9, 20.7 and 13.3 to start 2011. So, even when he’s hurt, he can still give you a more-than-respectable HR rate.
Shaun Marcum (SP - Brewers) - Marcum looked good on Wednesday with his 2nd straight QS and 2nd W of the season. Last night he allowed just 4 hits and 1 BB in 7.0 shutout innings. Marcum’s Achilles heel has been his performance against RHB. In 2010, opposing RHB posted a .514 SLG compared to the LHB of just .299. So far this season, he has kept opposing RHB to just a .206 average and has recorded 10 K’s against them, but his 1 HR allowed was a righty and 6 of his 8 BB were all righties. The sample size is still too small to read too much into it for 2011, but if he can figure out RHB by the end of May, he’ll be a “buy” candidate via trade for the full season.
Russell Branyan (1B - Diamondbacks) - Looks like we may have a position battle on our hands. Juan Miranda was named the starting 1B out of spring training, but Branyan has now started two straight games for the D-Backs. Miranda has gotten off to a slow start, hitting just .227 with a .734 OPS to start the year. Branyan has gone 4-for-8 in the last two games with a HR. Branyan has a history of injury issues, so I won’t be surprised if this turns into a regular platoon situation in 2011. But if Branyan can secure an everyday role, we all know he can hit for power. With two teams in 2010, Branyan posted an AB/HR of 15.0 in 428 PA. Dating back a few years, he posted seasons of 16.3, 11.0, and 13.9. His career rate is 14.9. Something to keep an eye on over the next few weeks.
Colby Rasmus (OF - Cardinals) - Think Rasmus likes hitting in front of Pujols? I’m sure he’s seeing plenty of good pitches to hit these days. Through 12 games this year, Rasmus is hitting .375 with 5 XBH, 8 BB, and a SB. That’s good for an OBP of .464 and an OPS over 1.000. With Pujols starting to heat up, Rasmus should be a lock for 100 runs scored this year. The real question here is his power potential. Can he flirt with the 30 HR mark or will he be closer to last year’s number of 23? A look at the distances on Rasmus’ HRs reveals that getting to that 30 mark may be tougher than just “another 7 HR.” Last year, utilizing HitTrackerOnline.com as a reference, 10 of his HRs were considered “Just Enough” to get over the fence with 1 more being considered a “Lucky” HR. Only 4 were classified as “No doubters,” which offers a little insight into Rasmus’ ability to reach that next power plateau.
Aroldis Chapman (RP - Reds) - Chapman has had an inexplicable loss in velocity over the last few days. After hitting 103 on the gun last weekend against the Diamondbacks with a consistent triple-digit fastball, Chapman was in the low 90’s on Wednesday night for the second straight game. That kind of drop in velocity has to be the result of an injury or just everyday soreness, so I would expect the Reds to be cautious with Chapman over the next few days. For now, Chapman is mostly valuable in leagues that value holds, but a fireballer like him should be on the fast track to the closer role (which is currently occupied by Francisco Cordero).
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