Alex Avila C (DET) - Avila continued his hot hitting into May as he hit 2 homers off of Bartolo Colon the other night. What was so impressive about the two homers is that both cleared the fence in left center field, which is a very good display of power for a left handed hitter. Clearly Avila's current ISO of .284 will not last, and neither will his RBI%, but the early volume of extra base hits are encouraging as is the opposite field power. Also, normally I would warn against a player with a .26 EYE, which Avila currently has, but in Avila's case I think it's more a case of sacrificing contact for power versus a loss of plate discipline. If you look at Avila's chase rate, it is only 23.7%, which is in line with his career mark and much better than the league average. So, Avila is not striking out more because pitchers are expanding the zone on him, but because he is swinging and missing more - which I'm guessing is a result of trying to hit for more power. Certainly Avila's 28.4 K% will prevent him from hitting .300+ all season, but as long as the extra base hits keep coming in Avila will be able to sustain above average fantasy production for a catcher. In other words, don't expect Avila's current pace to continue, but he shouldn't fall off the map either.
Brett Gardner OF (NYY) - On April 25th our very astute Drew Dinkmeyer pointed out pitchers attacking the zone against Gardner more often as evidenced by 54% of pitches against him being thrown in the zone and a first strike percentage of 67%. However, Drew noted that he believed Gardner would make an adjustment, and either Gardner has or those numbers have just normalized on their own (probably a combination of the two). Pitchers are now in the zone 49% of the time with a first strike percentage of 54.7; both of those numbers are right in line with what they were a year ago at 48.3% and 56.2% respectively. Over the 8 game span in which those numbers dropped, Gardner has taken 8 walks and struck out just 3 times, leading to a .500/.682/1.000 time. It's safe to say that Gardner has found the comfort zone he had in 2011, and you should get him back in your lineups ASAP if you own him or try to buy low if you don't own him.
John Danks SP (CHW) - Look for John Danks to get back on track today against a struggling Twins' offense. Truth be told, Danks is pitching better than ever before as his K/9 are rising for the second straight year (6.69/6.85/8.31) while his BB/9 are simultaneously dropping for the second straight year (3.28/2.96/2.54). Meanwhile his GB% of 42.6% is right in line with his career mark. Unfortunately, some bad luck has prevented Danks, and his fantasy owners, to reap the rewards of his improved peripherals. Danks currently has a BABIP 30 points above his career mark and HR/FB% 2.1 percentage points above his career mark. We'll see less hits and homers in the near future for Danks which will result in a downwards correction in both his ERA and WHIP. In fact, Danks' xFIP (an expected ERA in a nutshell based on K/9, BB/9 and expected HR/9) is a career best 3.36. If he can sustain the improvements in his peripherals, and swing data (30.6 outside swing percentage and 10.9 swinging strike percentage) suggests he can, Danks's actual ERA should reflect that 3.36 mark from here on out.
Wade Davis SP (TB) - At the beginning of April I posted my doubts about a possible Wade Davis breakout following his announced contract extension. Well, I remain unimpressed. After last night's start, Davis now has a putrid K/9 of 3.92. His walk total of 14 nearly matches his strikeout total of 17. It might be tough to ignore the 2.77 ERA, but trust me when I say danger is around the corner for Davis. The decreased strikeouts are especially alarming considering Davis is a FB pitcher. Fortunately for him a HR/FB% of just 2% (career mark of 8.5) is deflating his homer totals. Plus, heading into last night's game, Davis' average fastball velocity sat at 90, down 2.3 mph from a year ago. The poor K rate, K/9 and velocity all point towards the earned runs piling up in a hurry for Davis and may even indicate a possible injury that he is hiding.
Edwin Jackson SP (CHW) - While it's true that Jackson entered this game with FIP and xFIP well below his actual ERA, I don't view him as the buy low candidate that some do. Yes, he's suffered from some bad luck which has inflated his ERA, but his FIP and xFIP are deflated thanks to two amazing starts to begin the season that are not reflective of how Jackson has pitched lately. In his first two starts, Jackson struck out a whopping 20 batters. In his four starts since then, and previous to last night's start, Jackson struck out just a combined 12 batters, while walking equally as many. The story was the same last night. Even though Jackson only gave up 1 ER over 7, he managed just 2 strikeouts. I'm not saying to drop Jackson, but I don't suggest buying low on him as I normally would with a pitcher that has such a big discrepancy between his actual ERA and expected ERA.
