1. Mike Stanton (OF - Marlins) - Mike Stanton is going to finish the month of June with 5 HR. Not bad, but considering all 5 came in the first half of the month, we expected a huge breakout for him. Instead, he is in HR slump going homerless in his last 15 games. Stanton is equaling his HR rate from 2010 almost to the exact number. Last year, Stanton hit 22 HR at a AB/HR of 16.3. This year's 16 HR to date yields a rate of 16.4. In fact, almost all of his major metrics are just about exact: OPS of .833 in 2010 vs. .843 in 2011, .259 avg vs. .252, and K/BB of .28 to a slight improved of .32. Strikeouts are still high for the kid and he certainly has room to grow, but for now it looks like you're at least going to get the power you drafted.
2. Logan Morrison (OF - Marlins) - If we were drafting based on Twitter followers, LoMo would be near the top (its an entertaining follow if you haven't already added him - @LoMoMarlins). However, after a stellar two months of the season that produced a .320 / .406 / .574 and an AB/HR of 17.4, he has been ice cold for the month of June with a .188 / .269 / .323 and a HR rate of 32.0. He's been given some rest recently and has played the DH role in AL parks. Perhaps last night's HR might have done the trick . If he can get back on pace from the first two months, which I think is a risky prediction, then he's a viable mixed leaguer. However, his best power season in the minors was in 2007 with a rate of 18.9 and he hasn't sniffed the sub-20.0 mark since.
3. Johnny Venters (RP - Braves) - Venters has been one of the best setup men in the game, showing signs of one day (maybe even in the very near future) of taking over the job as closer for the Braves. However, leading the league in appearances with 46 and tied for 2nd in Holds with 16 could be leading to some early season exhaustion as we head into the all-star break. Manager Fredi Goznalez has noticed the same thing and plans to rest him a few days over the weekend to make sure he's not being overused. After an overpowering first couple months of the season that led to just 2 ER in 33.2 IP, Venters has allowed 7 ER in 17.1 IP this month, raising his ERA to 1.59. For now, unless you count Holds, Venters can stay on the waiver wire until we have a clearer picture on when he'll take over the 9th inning job. For now, its no time soon.
4. Hanley Ramirez (SS - Marlins) - Hanley hit his first HR since coming off the DL. That's just 1 HR in 46 AB this month and 5 in 227 for the season (total AB/HR rate of 45.4). He's obviously not even coming close to living up to his Top-3 overall ranking from the preseason. You have to imagine a .216/.307/.317 screams for a regression to the mean for his overall career numbers of .306/.379/.506. While ending the year with an overall declining stat line is inevitable at this point, the smart bet has to be on a huge 2nd half that helps to normalize these rates. With everyday that goes by and Hanley hovers near the Mendoza line, owners become more frustrated and buy-low opportunities emerge. It may be difficult to pry him from any owner at this point, but certainly worth a shot.
5. Ricky Nolasco (SP - Marlins) - This is typical Ricky Nolasco. Anyone who has ever owned him knows he goes through streaky good times and then suddenly implodes with an ERA/WHIP killing outing. Yesterday, Nolasco was on the good end and perhaps may be starting another good streak. He went the distance and allowed 5 hits, 2 BB, and no runs while recording 3 K's for his first win since May 24th. Nolasco's ownership dropped sharply after he went a stretch of starts of 1-for-5 in QS with 22 ER in 26.1 IP. Since then, he has hurled back-to-back QS including yesterday CG SHO gem. Nolasco is a two-start pitcher next week against the Phillies and Astros, but I'm still feeling a little nervous about him until I see his K-rates return closer to his '08-'10 K/9 of 8.6 (currently at 6.5).
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