Huston Street RP (COL) - Street picked up his 20th save of the season last night, but he also gave up another run. Over his first 10 saves, Street had a 2.20 ERA, but over his past 10 saves, that number has risen all the way up to 3.86. So, should owners be worried? I don't think so. Street is currently posting an outstanding 6.20 K/BB ratio - the best of his career to date. Street's GB% of 41.1% is, while still making him somewhat FB risky, his best mark in that department since his rookie season. All in all these numbers have led to a 2.77 xFIP for Street, but a 19.4 HR/FB% has really stung Street. Given that Street has a career HR/FB% of 8.1, has never posted one higher than 10.6 in a single season and his other peripherals are the best of his career, I'm not worried at all about him and fully anticipate the ERA to come back down as the HR/FB% normalizes a bit.
Mike Morse 1B (WAS) - Morse continues to be on fire as he hit his 13th homer of the season and 6th so far already in June. Count me as one of the doubters, though. Morse's average should drop soon as his plate discipline is awful (.24 EYE). Along those same lines, Morse isn't very patient - he is walking just 5.5% of the time and chasing pitches outside of the strike zone 39.2% of the time, which is much higher than the league average of 29.5% of the time. It's tough for me to believe that Morse will be able to keep pitchers honest with those types of numbers, and I expect a dip in the power numbers going forward to reflect that.
Zack Greinke SP (MIL) - After Greinke's last start, Drew referred to him as arguably the best buy-low SP candidate in all of baseball, and I have to completely agree. Drew touched on Greinke's bad luck, but in case you missed it a shortened recap can be given by just viewing the disparity between Greinke's xFIP and his actual ERA. Based on his peripherals, Greinke's xFIP is an outstanding 1.94 while his actual ERA is 5.23. Part of the reason for Greinke's amazing xFIP is an almost unheard of 11.81 K/9 for a starter. Greinke's move to the NL has really boosted this as hitters are chasing a whopping 34.5% of pitches outside of the strike zone against Greinke with 12.1% of their strikes being swinging strikes. And when hitters do decide to swing, they are making contact just 74.4% of the time. All three of those numbers are well, well above average for Greinke and point towards a possible sustainability in his amazing K rate. It's not often you can get one of baseball's most dominant starting pitchers on the cheap, but that's exactly the opportunity that presents itself right now if you want to make a run at Greinke.
Dee Gordon SS (LAD) - Gordon went 2-4 last night to raise his batting average up to .326 in in 11 games since his promotion. I wouldn't expect the high batting average to continue, as so far it is being driven by a lucky singles average of .383. The problem with Gordon right now is his tiny frame and lack of strength. As he gets older and stronger, he should develop gap power, but right now he is just a singles hitter. Evidence of that, aside from simply looking at him, can be found in his current .047 ISO and the .055 ISO he posted at AAA this season prior to getting called up. So, with the lack of extra base hits, Gordon's average will most likely dip below .300 quickly as his singles average regresses.
Jeff Karstens SP (PIT) - Karstens takes the hill today for the Pirates. It appears to be a good matchup against a scuffiling Indians' team, but I have my doubts about Karstens. Based on his career numbers, I'd expect a regression across the board for Karstens - in the K, BB and GB rates. Plus, even based on his current peripherals, Karstens has been very fortunate. He has and 83.1 LOB%, but his career mark is well lower at 68.8%. Likewise, Karsten's BABIP is .259, but his career BABIP is much higher at .286. So, with expected regression in both the skills and luck department, Karstens could face a rocky road the rest of the year.
