A.J. Burnett - The rumors swirling around whether AJ. Burnett may eventually be moved to the bullpen are alive and kicking this morning after the Yankees' right hander was shelled on Saturday night by, of all teams, the Twins. Burnett lasted just 5 outs and allowed 7 ER on 5 hits and 3 walks to raise his season ERA and WHIP to 4.96 and 1.42, respectively. In 2010, Burnett was downright terrible and finished the season with a 4.83 FIP. Entering yesterday's game, Burnett's FIP was 4.60 so he's been just about equally as bad during the past 2 seasons. There are several problems for Burnett - most notably that he's walking 4 batters per game and posting a career-worst 1.28 HR rate. He gave up his 23rd HR when Danny Valencia went yard in the 2nd inning. While he has raised his GB rate by 4% compared to 2010, Burnett just isn't right and should be avoided at all costs. Last season could have been written off as a mirage, but now that he's strung together a second consecutive poor season, you can call it a trend. Steer clear.
Alex Rios - On MLB.com last night, the headline for the game story for the White Sox win over the Rangers was that Alex Rios came up big. I checked the box score, expecting to see Rios with a few hits and maybe a HR. Instead, it showed Rios went 1-for-4 with an RBI. While I certainly get that Rios' lone hit was, indeed, critical in helping Chicago win, it's telling that a one-hit night is something to celebrate for Rios who is in the midst of a terrible season. Entering yesterday's game, Rios ISO was down to a flat .100 compared to his .158 career mark. He's now hitting .212 with a .566 OPS and has just 10 steals in 15 tries. His BABIP is a lowly .223 so Rios' numbers should bounce back at some point, but he's really not worth a roster spot in any league format. It's amazing that a guy as talented as Rios is struggling so much.
David Huff - Nobody expected David Huff to maintain the 0.51 ERA he owned entering yesterday's game against the Tigers. Unfortunately for those fantasy owners who picked up Huff based off his recent success, the Indians' left hander struggled from the get-go and lasted just 2 1/3 innings, yielding 5 ER. Huff hadn't allowed a HR through his first 17 2/3 innings this season (he gave up a solo shot to Brandon Inge in the 2nd inning) and had improved his strikeout rate from 4.18 in 2010 to 7.64 in 2011. He had also cut his walk rate nearly in half. Add it all up and you get a better understanding of how Huff's posted a 1.99 FIP prior to yesterday. However, his xFIP was nearly double at 3.70 so the type of regression he experienced yesterday will continue. Huff does get the Royals in his next start and should be OK to plug in as a spot starter.
Brandon Inge - After 239 plate appearances where he hit .177/.242/.242 with just 1 HR, the Tigers sent Brandon Inge to AAA on July 20. In 29 games with the Toledo Mud Hens, Inge hit .287 with 7 HRs and got the call back up to the big league club late Friday. He wasted no time making an impact in the AL Central Division pennant race, homering in his first AB and then knocking a double in his second AB. Inge finished the game 2-for-4 and is now hitting .183 for the season. Prior to his demotion, Inge owned just a .237 BABIP and his ISO had dropped from .150 in 2010 to just .065. I expect Inge's power will return and, assuming his BABIP bounces back, the 3rd baseman's numbers should regress much closer to his career norms. He's still only worth a look in very deep 14+ team leagues.
Danny Valencia - Poor Danny Valencia continues to deal with some serious regression this season. He connected for a HR Saturday against the Yankees and finished the game 1-for-3, giving him 13 HRs and 60 RBI. Last season, Valencia posted a .137 ISO and hit .311/./351/.448 in 322 plate appearances. He maintained such a strong slash line thanks to a cool .345 BABIP. This season, Valencia is hitting just .245/.290/.389 with a .138 ISO, in large part because his BABIP has tumbled to .275. Somehow, Valencia has actually improved his LD rate by nearly 1% but the hits that fell in 2010 are getting caught in 2011. Valencia's regression presents an opportunity for managers in keeper leagues as I'd recommend targeting the second baseman as a cheap addition for your 2012 team. Statwise, he's probably going to land somewhere in between the past 2 seasons which would give him decent value in most league formats.
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