Matt Harrison- TEX- Cold- Harrison may be experiencing some regression to the mean. He has had 2 starts of the non-quality variety in his last 3 outings. His ERA hasn't suffered much as he has allowed only 4 runs in each of those but his WHIP took a hit last night as he gave up 9 hits and walked 3 in 6 IP while striking out 3. His BABIP stands at .284 and his LOB% is 77.5%. With an xFIP of 3.95 much higher than his ERA of 3.08 there could be some more negative regression to the mean ahead.
Jacoby Ellsbury- BOS- Stats- Believe it or not, even after getting walk off hits the past 2 nights and being on a 5-game hitting streak, some negative regression to the mean might be happening to Ellsbury. His hitting has been very timely, but not consistent. In those 5 games he is only 6-for-26 and is 7-for-33 over his last 7 games. Still his BABIP is at .341. With a career high in homers at 18 and 31 steals so far this year, Ellsbury still has value even if his average dips.
Carlos Villanueva- TOR- Cold- Is Villanueva suffering from fatigue after converting from relief to starting, as much speculation is asserting? Probably not. It is more likely a simple case of regression to the mean. In the middle of June Villanueva's BABIP stood at .220. It now stands at .275. Most of the damage has come in a big chunk, over his past 3 starts. This wasn't unexpected, if you have been paying attention here on Fantistics.
Luke Hochevar- KC- Hot- Hochevar has struck out 13 batters in his last 2 starts, covering 14.1 IP That is the most important thing to see in his recent hot streak, as it was what was lacking in his game so far this season. Hochevar's K/9 is still down at 4.89 even after these last 2 starts. It was at 6.64 in 2010. If he can come close to maintaining that and his 2.85 BB/9 then Hochevar could have a very strong finish to the season.
Charlie Furbush- SEA- Rookie- Furbush did in the Seattle rotation what he couldn't do in his 2 starts as a Tiger- pitch well. In his 5 IP, Furbush allowed just 2 run n 2 hits and walked no one while striking out 3. He was perfect through the first 4 innings. Furbush can have control issues, as his 3.52 BB/9 shows, but he was in excellent form yesterday. He had the second most Ks in the minors last season, but isn't expected to rack them up as frequently at the major league level because he isn't a power pitcher. Toiling in the relative obscurity of Seattle, Furbush may have a chance to hone his craft and become a serviceable starter. However, he still may end up better suited for a relief role. What he ends up doing will determine his eventual fantasy value. He is a low risk flyer, not a prime prospect.
Follow me on Twitter all season - @fantisticspaul