Jered Weaver SP (LAA) - I have a feeling Weaver may be overrated in 2012 drafts. His 2.44 ERA is a far ways away from his 3.01 FIP and even further from his 3.67 xFIP. Also, his K/9 dropped off from last year's career high of 9.35 down to 7.85, which is much closer to his 08/09 marks, two rather pedestrian seasons. This is not to say that Weaver won't be very good again, but given that his K/9 have dropped back a bit and that he will most likely be unable to repeat this season's 5.7 HR/FB%, there are safer top tier pitching options.
Gavin Floyd SP (CHW) - Strolling through Fangraphs searching for pitchers with gaps between their ERA's and FIP's, I came across Floyd. He entered last night's start with a 4.35 ERA and 3.71 FIP. Could this be an opportunity to pick up value in 2012? I don't think so. The fact is this is the 3rd year in a row in which Floyd's ERA will lag behind his FIP. For whatever reason, he consistently strands runners at a lower rate than most, and with his K/9 dropping 2 consecutive seasons there is little reason to expect a spike in his strand rate. Floyd is a case where an ERA-FIP discrepancy can be misleading at first glance.
BJ Upton OF (TB) - As a BJ Upton owner I can't complain about the batting average (after all this is essentially what he has done the previous two seasons) and have to be satisfied with the power total as this is just the second 20 homer season of his career. However, I am a little bit disappointed in the stolen base output. After swiping 40 plus bags 3 consecutive seasons, it's highly unlikely Upton will reach that mark this year. He did steal 2 last night to push him to 29 on the season, but will likely finish with a total in the low thirties. Looking at FanGraphs speed score, Upton posted a 5.9 (his career mark is 6.1). His stolen base success percentage is 76%, which is considered successful and is right in line with his career mark. Also, Upton's .413 on base percentage is identical to his career mark. Some times for one reason or another a player just doesn't hit the targeted number we expect for him. Considering the evidence though (Upton's speed, stolen base success rate and on base percentage all in line with his career numbers), there's no reason to not set 40+ steals as Upton's projected 2012 total.
David Price SP (TB) - With a lot of top tier starting pitching options likely to be available in 2012 fantasy drafts, I think Price could emerge as one of the finer value plays. At age 26, Price is a monster on the hill. His K/9 have gone up every season: 7.15/8.11/8.44. His BB/9 have gone down every season: 3.79/3.41/2.30. His GB% has gone up every season: 41.5/43.7/44.4. Basically in the three aspects of a game that the pitcher has most control over, Price continues to improve. He also pitches at Tropicana Field which is a pitcher's park. So with these peripherals why will Price be undervalued? Well, entering last night's start, Price's 3.40 ERA left him outside the top 30 (qualified starting pitchers). Price's 3.17 FIP indicates he deserved better. Assuming the same peripherals in 2012, Price is a good bet to improve upon this year's ratios as well as his win total with a little better luck, and considering his age and talent it's more than likely those peripherals will improve as well.
Dustin Pedroia 2B (BOS) - Dustin Pedroia started off slow but has since emerged as a potential MVP candidate. He sure helped his cause last night, blasting 2 homers and driving in 5 runs. Pedroia entered the game with a career high in homers and now has his first 20 homer season. Last year, Pedroia set a career high in HR/FB% with an 11.4 mark. He only played in 75 games, so it was tough to tell if the elevated indications of raw power were for real, but after last night's game Pedroia's HR/FB% should be back up over 11% for the season indicating last year's mark was not a fluke. With a year and a half of an 11+ HR/FB%, a career EYE of 1.14 and entering 2012 at the age of 28, it is likely Pedroia will hit the 20 homer mark again.
