James Shields (SP--Rays) Let's face it. Was anyone picking James Shields to have the kind of year he's put together in 2011 after a 13-15 record and a 5.18 ERA last season? The crazy thing about Shields is that the great component stats have always been there, even last season. He's been averaging better than eight strikeouts per nine innings and his control has been always great with just a pinch above two walks per nine innings. So what's been the big change this year? Well, what stand out is he's reduced his home runs allowed significantly dropping down from a HR/9 of 1.50 to 0.91 in 2011. Which probably means that while his control has been consistent, the location of his pitches have been more effective. And with the better placed pitches, batters have made less contact this year by 4% over last against Shields. After his performance this season, Shields should be considered near the top of the pecking order in next year's draft.
Brent Morel (3B--White Sox) Looking at his overall numbers on the year, rookie Brent Morel still has a long way to go. His .255 batting average has been in or around that number since the start of June. While he hasn't really gotten into any major hot streak, he has really gotten into any slumps either; so from that perspective, his consistency, albeit modest, is attractive from a fantasy standpoint. But since September has hit, we are starting to see some increasing attractive attributes coming from Morel as his power stroke seems to have come alive with five homers this month. His .293 batting average is solid enough but a 1.127 OPS is enough that should be grabbing people's attention. Plus he's a tough out as he doesn't strikeout often (11.9%). Morel showed good power and above average speed in the minors. He's been pretty hot at the end of the year and could be worth a hard look come spring.
Nick Markakis (OF--Orioles) It's been a little bit of a disappointing year for Nick Markakis. He's batting a decent .279 on the season and his fifteen home runs are just borderline OK. But where he has really fallen off the beam this year is with his overall extra base hits. Markakis in the past has been a doubles machine hitting 40+ his past four years. He's got just 26 this year and the lack of extra bases has resulted in a low RBI total (68) and a .399 SLG. But to Markakis' credit he's been making the same contact on the ball he usually does (89%), his strikeouts have dropped 3% over last year and his line drive rate has been the best of his career (22.7%). But with a BHIP of just .292 (career norm of .322), this seems like a case of just plain old bad luck. His lackluster performance this year will make him an underwhelming choice in 2012. He could bounce back nicely next year as his three year averages have shown him to be one of the more consistent and productive hitters. He's only going to be 28 next year, so he's someone you don't want to forget about.
David Murphy (OF--Rangers) Talk about a guy who is picking up some serious fantasy steam as the season approaches to a close. David Murphy has been belting the ball as well as anyone and if there was ever a time to take a chance on him, it's now as his fantasy value should be at its highest of the season. Murphy has bumped his batting average up 20 points to .274 since the start of the month and he has four home runs. For the month he is batting .412 with an OPS of 1.188. Murphy has gotten some consistent playing time with Nelson Cruz going down once again with injuries. But don't anticipate that Murphy's playing time will decrease even with Cruz coming off the DL. Down the stretch, Texas will use ever hot bat it can get into the lineup and Murphy's has been one of the hottest. Great time to take a chance on him as he has burning it up down the stretch.
Michael Pineda (SP--Mariners) Michael Pineda began the season as one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. The rookie was dazzling the first half of the season keeping his ERA below 3.00 most of that time and logging a strikeout per inning. But since the All-Star break, Pineda has dropped back down to earth and has been somewhere between "OK" and "not great". The second half has seen Pineda with an ERA of 5.17 and a 1-4 record. But all is not terrible. Despite the poor second half ERA, Pineda has still been able to hold the opposition to a batting average of .228 and an OBP of .288. He's still striking out better than a batter per inning and the lack of run support has done little to help him notch victories. To date Pineda's ERA has climbed to 3.71 on the season but with a FIP of 3.41, he has pitched better than the second half would indicate. And with a very solid WHIP of 1.08, Pineda has been hurt quite a bit by a poor strand rate of 69.5%. I'd say that Pineda's value for next season probably lies somewhere between the stellar start of the first half and the unfortunate second half. Expect more consistency in 2012 with more seasoning.
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