Brian Matusz- BAL- Stats- Matusz' record setting (and not in a good way) ERA of 10.69 this season had a huge component of bad luck in it. His BABIP was .382 and his LOB% was 56.4%. Matusz yielded homers like they were going out of style at a pace of 3.26 per 9 IP. His Hr/FB ratio was 19.8% and with a FB% of 50.8% that translated to a lot of homers. Matusz' xFIP (5.24) was less than half of his ERA. His K/9 of 6.89 was respectable and his ERA of 3.46 at AAA indicates that Matusz will rebound substantially in 2012.
Pedro Florimon- BAL- Rookie- Florimon picked up his first major league hit yesterday in his 4th game for the Orioles. He is still a raw prospect, hitting .267 with 8 homers and 15 steals at AA Bowie this season. With a K% of 21.9%, he is still too undisciplined to look like a fantasy asset at this stage, even in keeper leagues.
Brad Penny- DET- Stats- Penny's biggest problem this season was a loss of control. Only 43.0% of his pitches were within the strike zone. Batters waited on him, with a swinging strike percentage of 4.6%, compared to his career mark of 7.2%. The result was a K/9 of only 3.67, nearly matched by his BB/9 of 3.07%. He was healthy this season and if he can throw strikes he can bounce back.
Jacoby Ellsbury- BOS- Hot- Ellsbury's luck was all bad last season, between injuries limiting him to 84 major league PAs and a .217 BABIP dragging his average to .192 with no homers. This season it's just the opposite. His .338 BABP in 717 PAs has helped push his average to .322. After his 3 homers yesterday he has 31 for the year, more than half again as many as he had in his career through last season. Although his 38 steals are lower than his numbers in either of his two other full time years, that is still quite a potent multi-category fantasy contribution Ellsbury is making. With 17 runs and 103 RBI Ellsbury is a great asset across the board. He will be at the top of draft lists in 2012.
Derek Holland- TEX- Hot- Holland broke his string of 5 quality starts but it was mainly due to him leaving the game after 5 IP and only 74 pitches. He allowed 3 runs but only 5 hits and a walk while striking out 7. Holland has been much more consistent as the season has wound down, which is a good sign for him heading into 2012. He took the roller coaster to get there, but his final ERA of 3.95 was almost identical to his 3.94 FIP so it is a good gauge of how he pitched on average, even if there were some wild extremes from that average.
Another season of analysis comes to an end for me today. As always, it's been a lot of fun watching the twists and turns of the major league season. With my favorite Texas Rangers headed to the playoffs again, baseball season isn't over for me and I hope it'll last another month. For those of you whose attention has been turning to fantasy football, don't forget we have analysis available for that also. I am just a subscriber there, but it has helped me to a 3-0 record with the highest point total in 2 of the first 3 weeks. We've got you covered for both sports. See you next year when I will hope to be talking about the defending World Series champion Rangers.