Joe Mauer - Joe Mauer didn't play yesterday and isn't playing tonight because, as we all know, he's out with mild pneumonia. However, Mauer will be healthy to start next year (in theory) so one of the big questions heading into 2012 is how much value should you expect from Mauer? I'm bearish on Mauer for a few reasons. First, there are a number of solid catcher options from which to choose so it's no longer Mauer and then a bunch of fourth tier guys. Second, aside from Mauer's 28 HR, 2009 performance, he's connected for double digit HRs just once in his career when he hit 13 in 2006. Do you think he's going to suddenly be able to hit 20 HRs next season while playing half his games at Target Field? Third, the Twins offense is abysmal and likely won't be much better next season, especially if Justin Morneau can't return from his concussion symptoms. Mauer may hit .320 but his RBI and Run totals should remain lower than expected due to not having much help around him. Inevitably, someone in your league is going to overpay for Mauer based on his name and the idea he'll turn into his 2009 version. Don't be that manager.
Sean O'Sullivan - I'm pretty certain I've written more about Sean O'Sullivan this season than all other fantasy baseball writers combined. Gotta admit, I'm proud of that. O'Sullivan takes the hill against the Twins today hoping to finish 2011 on a positive note. O'Sullivan threw well in a very small sample size in April (21 IP, 3.43 ERA), but he fell off the wagon in May by posting a 9.10 ERA in 5 starts. In June, O'Sullivan had a sore biceps and upon returning to pitch in AAA, he recorded a 4.22 ERA in 14 starts. For the season, O'Sullivan's strikeout rate is 3.04 and his HR rate is 1.52. Those numbers are almost unfathomably bad. So, yeah, he's not worth a look next season.
Trevor Cahill - I am pleased to see Trevor Cahill's ERA at 4.31 entering his last start of the season. Please note that I don't have anything personal against Cahill, but he's a great example of how ERA is dependent on some degree of luck. Last season, Cahill posted a 2.97 ERA and was even considered a Cy Young candidate. However, as many in the sabemetrics community correctly pointed out, Cahill's peripheral numbers weren't nearly as a good as his ERA. He owned a 4.19 FIP, sub-6.00 strikeout rate and a .236 BABIP which indicated Cahill wouldn't be able to maintain an ERA in the low 3.00s in 2011. Sure enough, Cahill's BABIP is up to .304 this season and while he's striking out and walking a few more batters, the rest of Cahill's numbers are right in line with his 2010 season - including his FIP which is exactly the same at 4.19 through 33 starts. Draft him as a
Jeanmar Gomez - The Indians' Jeanmar Gomez will make his 10th and final start of 2011 when he faces the Tigers later this evening. Gomez has posted decent ERA (3.52) and FIP (3.75) numbers and has also done a good job of limiting HRs (0.67 HR/9). Gomez has never tallied many strikeouts in the minors so it's no surprise he's whiffing just 4.36 batters per game, which obviously dampens his fantasy value quite a bit. The right hander has overcome the low strikeout rate but owning an excellent 52% GB rate. The Indians will likely give Gomez a chance to win a spot in the rotation out of spring training so he may worth keeping an eye in very deep AL-only leagues.
Felipe Paulino - It seems appropriate that I finish my writing for Fantistics this season by talking about Felipe Paulino. I've touted Paulino all year and for a good chunk of time he rewarded me with solid lines that included a bunch of strikeouts. On Monday, Paulino allowed 3 ER over 6 innings while striking out 9. However, the bottom line is: fantasy leagues don't use FIP (Paulino's is 3.70) as a category, they use ERA. And Paulino's 4.46 ERA entering Monday ain't great. That said, I do think he's worth a look in 2012 based on his 8.37 strikeout rate and 0.81 HR rate. He walks a few too many (3.58 walk rate), but he's still just 27 so there's a hope he can continue to show improvement next season. You can probably grab him for next to nothing so take advantage - it's hard to find cheap SPs with strikeout rates in the 8.00s.
Thanks to everyone who read my articles throughout the baseball season. I appreciate your interest and look forward to providing more fantasy baseball updates and insight throughout the off-season.
