Cole Hamels - This season has been, by far, Cole Hamels' best of his career. Not only does he enter today's outing against Florida with a career-low 2.58 ERA, he has also lowered his FIP from 3.67 in 2010 to just 2.57. That 2.57 mark is more than a run better than any other mark in his career. He's walking a career-low 1.77 batters per game and allowing a career-low 0.51 HRs per game. Hamels has also upped his GB rate to 52% and owns just a 15% LD rate. After being a No. 2 fantasy SP for the past few seasons, Hamels has moved into the top tier and should be drafted accordingly in 2012.
Carlos Pena - I wrote back in early May that Carlos Pena was an excellent buy-low candidate. At the time, he was coming off an April where he hit just .159 with a .175 SLG% (how is that even possible?) and had knocked out all of zero HRs. Pena not only bounced back, he's recorded 3 excellent months with one dud (July) to bring his season line to .226/.347/.455 with 25 HRs and 69 RBI after going 1-for-3 with a HR Friday afternoon versus the Pirates. In May (.919 OPS), June (.924 OPS) and August (.866 OPS), Pena hit like one of the better fantasy first basemen, particularly in leagues that count OBP and not AVG. Big, slugging first baseman have a tendency to fall off the map quickly but, at 33, Pena continues to put up solid power numbers.
Michael Morse - Back in spring training, my colleague Drew Dinkmeyer started up the Michael Morse bandwagon and hasn't looked back. While I gave him a hard time early on, Drew was spot on with his prediction as Morse has turned into a solid 1B/OF option in all league formats. After going 1-for-4 on Friday, Morse is now hitting .314/.369/.551 with 24 HRs and 79 RBI. At first glance it appears Morse is relying on quite a bit of luck as his BABIP sits at .358. However, in 1,100 career ABs, Morse owns a .352 BABIP so he's actually about in line with what would be considered average for him. Based off his .240 ISO and 21% LD rate, Morse's .300+ BA and 25-30 HR power are both sustainable for next season. He'll be 30 but should once again provide strong numbers from the 1B/OF positions.
Bud Norris - I really like Bud Norris as a solid mid-rotation SP in 2012. Norris, who takes on the Brewers today, has lowered his walk rate from 4.51 in '10 to 3.51 this season while maintaining an outstanding 8.84 strikeout rate. After posting a 4.17 FIP but 4.92 ERA last season, Norris owns a solid 3.89 FIP and 3.68 ERA in '11. His somewhat high HR and walk rates make Norris a bit volatile from start to start but, over time, he should provide your team with excellent strikeout numbers and a decent ERA. He's also trending in the right direction with his chase rate, which has increased by 4% this season to 31%. It's hard to find pitchers with such strikeout upside so I'm moving Norris up on my SP charts for next season.
Ricky Nolasco - Here's a case where a pitcher's key indicators might look good for his actual team but aren't nearly as valuable for fantasy baseball owners. After back-to-back seasons with a strikeout rate in the mid-8.00s or mid-9.00s, Ricky Nolasco's posted just a 6.56 K/9 entering today's start against the Phillies. He has done a nice job to lower his HR rate from 1.37 in 2010 to just 0.86 this season and he's even posted a 3.49 FIP compared to a 3.86 mark in 2010. The problem is his ERA remains too high for a guy with a sub-7.00 strikeout rate. He's definitely been unlucky as his BABIP is .329 and his strand rate is just 69%. Considering this is the third straight year Nolasco has recorded an FIP under 3.86, he should be a nice bounce back candidate in 2012.
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