Ian Kennedy SP (ARZ) - Last night Kennedy won his 18th game of the season, but this is another case where wins do not accurately reflect the skill of the pitcher. By our formula for expected wins, Kennedy should only have about 14-15 wins. He amazingly was won 18 of 20 quality starts. In terms of giving up runs, Kennedy also has been fortunate. His ERA is 2.90, but his FIP is 3.50. The reason for this is Kennedy's high strand rate of 80.2%, when his career mark is 75.1%. Due to some luck bolstering his win total and deflating his ERA, Kennedy is likely to be an overrated starting pitcher heading into 2012 fantasy drafts.
Mike Stanton OF (FLA) - Stanton ripped his 32nd homer of the year last night and continues to demonstrate his monstrous power. In his rookie season, Stanton certainly impressed with 22 homers in 100 games, and I find it amazing how at age 21 he has just improved his game - no sophomore slump here. One important improvement for Stanton has been his plate discipline. By simultaneously lowering his K rate and raising his BB rate, Stanton has seen his EYE grow from .28 to .41. And despite his impressive power totals from last season, Stanton has actually improved upon his 22.9 HR/FB% from a year ago, currently posting a 25.2% mark. In fact, that number leads the Major Leagues and is 1.7 percentage points ahead of defending homerun king Jose Bautista, who is second in the Majors in HR/FB%. Given his age (21), tremendous raw power (perhaps best in the majors) and already improving plate discipline, Stanton is an elite keeper in any format.
Derrek Lee 1B (PIT) - Lee returned from the DL yesterday - small fracture in his wrist - and immediately made his impact felt by smashing a game winning grand slam off of Cubs' closer Carlos Marmol. Lee's impressive day shouldn't have you running out to the waiver wire to pick him up as age is catching up with this slugger. Lee has been declining since his surprising 35 homer effort in 2009. The almost 36 YO has seen his EYE dip from .70 to .54 to .28 since 2009. In 2009, Lee had a HR/FB% of 17.9% - close to his 16.2 career mark, but has been able to post marks just over 12% in that category this year and last year. As is the case with a lot of aging players, Lee is having particular difficulty hitting fastballs. In 2009 (according to Fangraphs) he rated a tremendous 35.4 runs above average against fastballs. That number dropped all the way down to -.03 last season and is even worse currently at -3.2.
Ricky Nolasco SP (FLA) - Nolasco got off to a good start this season, and it had many people, myself included, thinking this was finally the year for him. Well, Nolasco pushed his ERA to 4.39 last night after allowing 4 ER for the third straight start; in his last 4 starts, he has allowed a total of 23 ER. A quick glance at Nolasco's FIP (3.47) and xFIP (3.55) may suggest some bad luck. However, after 3 years in a row of that, maybe we just have to accept this is who he is. Sure, Nolasco's LOB% of 68.6% is on the low side, but his career mark is 68.6%. Sure, Nolasco's BABIP of .326 is on the high side, but he is allowing line drives 23.9% of the time and had BABIP's of .317 and .316 the past two seasons. Add in the fact that Nolasco's K% has been dropping the past two seasons: 24.8%/22.1%/16.7%, and I think I'll let someone else gamble on him in 2012.
Nathan Eovaldi P (LAD) - Eovaldi should be dropped in all formats as after last night's start, he will be shifted to the bullpen. Either way, I'm not a big fan of Eovaldi moving forward. His 3.09 ERA over his first 6 Major League starts is impressive, but the peripherals, for now, just aren't there. Eovaldi was FB risky with just a 39.1 GB%, and his K/BB ratio of 1.35 is poor. The reality is Eovaldi posted a 4.51 xFIP. A low HR/FB% (6.3%) and BABIP (.261) to go along with an elevated strand rate (79.6%) all contributed to make it appear Eovaldi pitched better than he actually did. Even if Eovaldi does garner another start at some point this season, I would not feel confident spot starting him.
