NL First Pitch: Mets fans probably didn't notice that the fences were moved in at all on Thursday as the Mets won a pitcher's duel 1-0 behind a strong effort from Johan Santana and the Mets bullpen. Santana's velocity was down from where he was in 2010 but his slider and change-up were as effective as ever. Whether that was influenced by opponent or a sign of things to come, we'll dig into in the notes. Opposite Johan Santana, Tommy Hanson's line was much better than it looked. Hanson struggled to generate whiffs and saw his velocity way down. We'll assess why I'm concerned more in the notes. Jason Heyward's struggles continued while David Wright provided most of the Mets offense. Pitcher's duels on the east coast continued in Pittsburgh with Roy Halladay and Erik Bedard engaging in another 1-0 game. Jonathan Papelbon earned his first save as Phillie. Roy Halladay gave up two singles to start the game then retired 24 in a row. John Mayberry Jr. and Carlos Ruiz provided all the offense the Phillies needed. The Cubs bullpen got in the way of our third potential 1-0 game after Ryan Dempster dominated the Nationals lineup with 10 K's over 7 2/3 IP. Stephen Strasburg wasn't quite as dominant as our lofty expectations warranted, but he was quite good as well. Ian Desmond picked up 3 hits without squaring up a single ball and even swiped a bag. Carlos Marmol didn't blow the save but did pick up a loss after a 9th inning that included 0 swinging strikes in 15 pitches. I'll dive into why I'm concerned about Marmol more in the notes. The Marlins early season woes continued as they were shutout after being no-hit by Kyle Lohse for 6 innings. Mark Buehrle struggled (predictably) against a Reds offense that crushes LHP, while Johnny Cueto maintained the big GB Rate improvements he showed last year. Jay Bruce kicked off the year with his first HR and after two years of a plateau I think he takes a nice big step forward this year. Look for a big run at 40 HR's. In the nightcap Clayton Kershaw lasted just 3 innings while trying to pitch through an ugly stomach-bug. Edinson Volquez had his usual up and down performance that was characterized by one bad inning (this time the 4th). Matt Kemp got an early lead on Ryan Braun in this year's MVP voting by knocking out a HR in a two-hit effort. Fantasy owners beloved Kenley Jansen struggled while Javy Guerra locked down his first save in a 1-2-3 fashion. Jansen has the better skills but Guerra's pedigree isn't bad. He could conceivably hold the role all year.
Johan Santana (SP - NYM): It wasn't quite vintage Johan on Thursday afternoon, but it was a strong performance in his first regular season outing back after missing all of 2011. Santana tossed 5 shutout innings, limiting the Braves to just 2 hits and 2 BB's, while striking out 5. Johan's fastball averaged around 87-88 mph, topping out at 89, which is 3-4 mph slower than his peak days and even 1-2 mph slower than his 2010 performance. Despite the weaker velocity, Santana was still able to generate a whopping 13 swinging strikes for a 15% swinging strike rate. With that many swings and misses it's not surprising to see Santana generate a 9.0 K/9 in his first outing. It should be noted the Braves have been especially awful against LHP in recent years. Last year the Braves 76 wRC+ and .628 OPS were the 2nd worst in all of baseball, only ahead of the lowly Mariners offense. As a result we need to keep expectations tempered for Johan. He won't always draw matchups this favorable and the fact that he was pulled after just 84 pitches shows the Mets will be cautious with his innings, but the first start suggests Johan will have pockets of fantasy value this season. I still see him as a back of the rotation high upside spot starter, so if you can find an owner buying that Johan is "back" or treating him as a reliable mid-rotation option; I'd jump on it quickly. The drop in velocity, health concerns, and heavy reliance on FB's makes him a Ted Lilly type in fantasy.
Tommy Hanson (SP - ATL): The final line (5 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 1 ER, 4 K's) probably doesn't warrant much concern for Tommy Hanson owners, but having watched much of his start on Thursday... I'm concerned. Hanson finished last season on the DL with shoulder issues and talked about having to alter his delivery this year to take pressure off the shoulder. When asked about Hanson on our SiriusXM show I continually said I'd try to stay away and simply draft another SP in the same tier. Those concerns only grew as I watched Hanson linger through 5 innings against a weak Mets offense. Hanson's avg FB velocity hovered around 88-89 mph which is 2-3 mph below last year's average FB velocity. Out of the 83 pitches he threw, he generated just 5 swinging strikes. This comes on the heels of a spring when he struck out just 6 batters in 13 innings. We talk a lot about news flow with injuries and with SP's and with Hanson most of the news and the data have lined up on the negative side. If I was a Hanson owner I'd be concerned by the direction of the news flow and I'd strongly consider selling him. At that velocity and that swinging strike rate (granted it's just one sample) it will be hard for Hanson to be much more than a back-end starter for fantasy teams.
Edinson Volquez (SP - SD): It was a typically frustrating evening for Volquez owners. He cruised through the first three innings, striking out 5 and allowing just one base-runner (a Clayton Kershaw 1b) before running into trouble with that one big inning. Last year it was typically the first inning, but last night it was the fourth. Volquez walked four batters in the inning and gave up 2 hits and 2 ER's in the inning with one of the outs coming on a wild pitch where the runner was thrown out at home. As usual Volquez was able to get swings and misses with his offspeed stuff but struggled with his command when pitching out of the stretch. He remains a high upside back-end starter who is almost guaranteed to assault your WHIP while posting great K Rates and a decent ERA. He'll get ARZ in his next outing at home, another outing that he'll likely post a K/I better than 1 but run into issues with command.
Ryan Zimmerman (3B - WAS): It was a quiet 0-2 boxscore for Ryan Zimmerman on Thursday but it came with some very hard-hit balls. Zimmerman launched a deep fly ball in the first inning that would've been a HR in almost any other day in Wrigley. With the wind blowing in at Wrigley (over 15 mph from center) as it usually does in April, the environment was very difficult for hitters. After a torrid spring where Zimmerman hit .351/.411/.667, the 4 PA's I saw him take on Thursday suggest he's still red-hot. In the prime of his career I expect Zimmerman's ISO to rebound this season to the .200-.230 range it carried in 2009 and 2010. I think a .290-30-100 season is likely on the way should Zimmerman be able to stay healthy.
Jason Heyward (OF - ATL): Jason Heyward failed to homer for the 3rd straight opening day as he went 0-4 with 2 K's. Fantasy owners can deal with the fact he wasn't able to extend the unusual streak, but the 2 K's in an 0-4 have to draw some concerns. Heyward's coming off of an ugly spring where he worked through some mechanical issues but hit just .227/.272/.413 in 75 AB's with an alarming 22 K's. K's tend to be one of the quicker statistical indicators, in terms of predictability, so the continuation of the contact issues into the regular season is worrisome. Coming into the year I was extremely optimistic about Heyward bouncing back, but as spring wore on and the K's piled up I grew more and more concerned. Over the next month keep an eye on Heyward's K Rate as that will likely be the indicator that tells us if this is the year Heyward's immense talent shines through.
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