Colby Rasmus OF (TOR) - Rasmus continued swinging a hot bat last night going 5-5 with a homer and a double; he scored 4 times and drove in 3. Schuyler wrote an optimistic blurb abut Rasmus a week ago and given that I liked Rasmus in the preseason I naturally agree with the optimism. Rasmus has made a lot of improvements from his dreadful 2011 season including an increased LD%, decreased IFFB%, decreased chase rate, decreased swinging strike rate. These minor improvements across a lot of areas has allowed Rasmus to post a solid .196 ISO and cut his K% to 20%; last year he had a .166 ISO and 22.1 K%. Masking Rasmus' improved indicators was a .227 BA heading into play last night. That was the result of a lot of bad luck (.190 singles average, 3 year average of .238). With 3 singles last night Rasmus' average is already on the rise (up to .247) and should continue to do so as his singles average normalizes.
James Shields SP (TB) - Shields gave up 5 ER (7 runs total) in 5 innings of work last night, and the peripherals were as bad as the surface stats as he gave up a homer and walked twice as many (4) as he struck out (2). Shields' ERA is now up to 4.62, and it is safe to say he has been a disappointment thus far. In my opinion, though, Shields is a huge buy low candidate. Entering the game Shields had a career best K% of 23.8%. Sure that is coming with a career worst BB%, but the 7.1 mark is still solid and leaves Shields with an impressive 3.36 K/BB ratio that is pretty much in line with last year's ratio of 3.46. On top of that Shields has somehow transformed into an extreme GB pitcher as he is inducing ground ball rates 59% of the time (career mark is 44.6%). With Shields' improvement in K%, maintaining of a solid K/BB ratio and a massive uptick in GB rate we should expect him to be as good as ever. Unfortunately a BABIP 17 points above his career mark, LOB% 6.2 percentage points below his career mark and HR/FB% 7.1 percentage points above his career mark has led Shields to post a 4.62 ERA when his xFIP indicates his ERA should be closer to 3. Look for Shields to get more favorable results, particularly with his HR/FB%, in the near future and post an ERA around 3 rest of season.
Brett Lawrie 3B (TOR) - Lawrie hit leadoff today as the Jays shook up their lineup. It's tough to tell if this is a permanent move as the Jays may have just been mixing things up while Edwin Encarnacion is out with a hand injury. Lawrie went 3-5 with 3 runs scored and would certainly be one of the league leaders in RS if the move was permanent. The move would also probably boost his SB totals. Ideally, though, the Jays and fantasy owners alike are probably hoping Lawrie is more patient. After walking 9.4% of the time last season, he is walking just 3.8% of the time this year. I think this lack of patience is responsible for Lawrie's missing power (ISO drop from .287 to .102) as his over aggressiveness (chase rate up 8 percentage points) has him swinging at pitcher's pitches. Given Lawrie's track record (lowest professional BB% in any stop is 7.7%) I think he starts being more patient regardless of where he hits and the power should follow.
Jonathan Broxton RP (KC) - Broxton converted his 14th save of the season last night. He was not overly dominant in doing so (1 hit, 1 walk, 0 K's). He is building up trade value for the Royals, but fantasy owners should not wait any longer before selling Broxton. His flashy 1.59 ERA and 14 saves make him attractive to an owner desperate for saves, but the truth is Broxton is just average at best. Despite the low ERA Broxton's FIP is 3.68 and his dominance is almost completely gone as evidenced by a 15.6 K%. During his 3 good years with the Dodgers Broxton's K% was about double that. When you consider there isn't a lot to like with the actual skills and that Broxton could be moved at the trade deadline (possibly to a team where he could be a middle reliever) owners would be savvy to start shopping him now.
Adrian Gonzalez 1B (BOS) - Gonzalez went 0-5 last night and left 5 guys on base; his average is now down to .262 with just 4 homers. As much as I want to write this off as a cold start, there are some red flags with Gonzalez. As he is exiting his peak years, his EYE is showing an obvious downwards trend: 1.09/.82/.62/.34. Gonzalez is chasing more pitchers than ever before with a high chase rate of 36.8% that at least partially explains the low ISO of .148. When I sat down to write this blurb I expected to talk about Gonzalez being an obvious buy low candidate, but when you consider it isn't luck (BABIP right in line with career marks) that is derailing him but eroding plate discipline, I can't make that recommendation. Current owners should remain patient as it is unlikely for a guy to completely fall off a cliff at the age of 30, but there are enough flags here to prevent me from trying to actively buy low.
