NL Player Notes - July 5, 2012

Cliff Lee - Our long national nightmare is finally over as Cliff Lee has won a baseball game. He tossed 8 innings against the Mets and struck out 9 while giving up just 2 ER. If you subscribe to Fantistics, you likely realize that wins is a poor stat. While Lee has just 1 win, he's pitched as effectively as he has in past seasons. His strikeout rate is 9.06, his walk rate is 1.85 and he's recorded a HR rate of 0.92. Lee also owns an excellent 3.06 xFIP, which is just a little over his 2.68 mark in 2011 and right in line with his 3.06 performance in 2010. With a 72% strand rate and 3.30 BABIP, it's very reasonable to believe Lee should post better numbers moving forward once his luck evens out. If an owner is putting too much emphasis on the lefty's win total, even in leagues that use wins as a category, take advantage and trade for Lee. He should post 8-10 wins moving forward and is an excellent buy-low candidate.

Adam Wainwright - Adam Wainwright pitched well on Wednesday against the Rockies and continues to scream "buy low" candidate for the second half of the season. He tossed 6 innings, allowed 1 ER and struck out 7. While Wainwright's ERA is 4.56, he owns a 3.09 xFIP and his strikeout (8.59), walk (2.54), HR (0.88) and GB (52%) rates are excellent. He's been bitten by a low 68% strand rate as well as a .333 BABIP. I'm a little worried about his LD rate, which has increased from 17% in 2010 to 23% this season (and is likely contributing to that higher BABIP). However, aside from that stat, the rest of Wainwright's numbers point toward a pitcher who should post a significantly better ERA over the season's final couple months. Look to acquire him if his current owner is getting impatient with that inflated ERA.

Edwin Jackson - Facing the Giants on Wednesday, Edwin Jackson tossed 5 2/3 innings and yielded 4 ER but still managed to get the victory. He walked 2, struck out 3 and now owns a 3.73 ERA and 1.13 WHIP for the season. Jackson's overall numbers are very similar to his 2011 season when he recorded a 3.79 ERA in 199 innings. Aside from an almost identical ERA, Jackson's strikeout (6.75), walk (2.66) and HR (0.98) rates are all right in line with his marks from a season ago. The one major difference is that Jackson's enjoyed a .250 BABIP compared to a .330 mark in 2011. That number should regress a bit, so we may see Jackson's ERA rise over the next couple months. Still, it's likely Jackson posts an ERA at or just below 4.00 for the remainder of the season with a whiff rate between 6.50-7.00. That makes him a decent back end starter in most formats.

Bryan LaHair - The Cubs' Bryan LaHair connected for his 14th HR of the season on Wednesday against the Braves. LaHair posted an incredibly impressive 1.251 OPS with 5 HRs in April, but since then, he's regressed to his true ability as his OPS marks have been .792, .686 and .750. He owns a strikeout rate of 31% and he's just 3-for-38 versus left-handed pitching. The power numbers remain strong (.243 ISO, .536 SLG%) and he should finish the year with between 20-25 HRs. But, at 29, he has limited upside and will likely become a platoon player in the long-term. For this season, in deeper leagues, LaHair is fine to start against right-handed pitchers (he entered Wednesday with a .999 OPS versus RHP), but you'll want to bench him against southpaws.

John Axford - After going 46-for-50 in save situations in 2011, John Axford has now blown 5 of his first 19 save chances in 2012, including against the Marlins on Wednesday when Gaby Sanchez hit a game-tying solo shot in the 9th. Axford did manage to strike out 2 to give him 47 whiffs in just 33 innings. However, Axford has been hurt by a 5.13 walk rate that's more than 2 batters per game higher than in 2011. He's also given up 5 long balls in 33 innings compared to yielding just 4 HRs in 73 frames last season. So, needless to say, Axford hasn't been nearly as effective this season and he will remain a risky option until he improves his control and limits the HRs. The one good sign for Axford's owners is that his 3.05 xFIP is much lower than his 4.86 ERA, so there's reason to think he can right the ship in the second half.

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