Jose Fernandez - In a surprise move, the Marlins decided to put highly-touted prospect Jose Fernandez on the Opening Day roster and he will make his major league debut Sunday versus the Mets. Not sure anyone expected this decision since it means Fernandez's free agent clock starts now. Miami's No. 1 pick in the 2011 draft, Fernandez dominated Single-A ball in 2012, posting a 1.59 ERA and 11.3 K/9 in 14 starts in the Sally League. He got bumped up to High-A Jupiter and made 11 starts there without missing a beat, owning a 1.96 ERA and 9.7 K/9. Hernandez features three pitches, a plus fastball that can hit 99 mph, a low-80s curveball and a high-80s slider. Despite his success last season, Fernandez, who is still just 20-years old, will likely have a difficult time adjusting to major league hitters. That said, the Marlins announced they will allow Fernandez to pitch between 150-170 innings this season, with most or all coming at the major league level. Knowing this, I'm adding Fernandez in deep NL-only and mixed leagues because of his upside. If he is able to overcome the odds and make an effective transition to the majors this season, we're talking about a valuable fantasy starting pitcher. Just keep in mind that there's all kinds of risk here.
Ricky Nolasco - The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco faces the Nationals on Opening Day for a 1:05 p.m. first pitch. Nolasco has been a frustrating pitcher to own in fantasy baseball the past few years because his peripheral numbers are always better than his actual stats. Back in 2008, the right hander had a solid 3.52 ERA and 3.69 xFIP to go along with a 7.88 K/9. Since that season, Nolasco's xFIP marks have trended as follows: 3.23, 3.37, 3.55, 4.17. However, his ERAs have been much worse at: 5.06, 4.51, 4.67, 4.48. Perhaps most alarming is that Nolasco's K/9 has trended downward from 9.49 in 2009 to just 5.89 in 2012. While missing fewer bats, he's also getting more grounders as his GB% has improved each year since 2009, from 38% to a career-high 46% last season. Until Nolasco's performance matches his advanced stats, and he goes back to missing more bats, he's not worth owning in any league format.
Jon Niese - Jon Niese draws an attractive Opening Day matchup against the Padres in New York this afternoon. Niese is coming off a season where he struck 155, posted a 3.40 xFIP and owned a 1.17 WHIP in 190 innings. Still just 26-years old, Niese should be a nice play this season based on his 2012 performance and peripheral stats from 2010 and 2011. In '10 and '11, the left hander recorded 3.80 and 3.28 xFIP marks, but was a victim of bad luck as his BABIP in both seasons was .324 and .333, respectively. Last season, Niese's BABIP dropped to .272 and we saw the big change in his results. His balls in play distribution hasn't changed much during the past three seasons, but his luck has. Assuming Niese posts a BABIP around league average this year, he should be good for a 3.75-ish ERA and 160 strikeouts, which make him valuable in most league formats.
Ben Revere - The Phillies are batting outfielder Ben Revere second in their opener today against the Braves. This is a nice spot for Revere, who should get pitches to hit in between Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley. Last season, Revere stole 40 bases and batted .294, although he had almost no power (.049 ISO) and didn't show much patience with a 5% walk rate. Revere's balls in play distribution was extreme, even for a speedster, as he had a 66% GB rate. Keep in mind that Revere has stolen 34 and 40 bases the past two seasons in just 117 and 124 games, respectively. Given the chance to play in a full season, expect Revere to close in and likely eclipse the 50 stolen bases mark. He should also hit for a decent enough average and, if the Phillies offense improves on last season, the outfielder should be a fine source of runs, too.
Placido Polanco - The Marlins' new cleanup hitter posted a .257/.302/.327 slash line in 90 games last season with the Phillies. He owned a .069 ISO and hit two homers. And his name is Placido Polanco. Yep, introducing your 2013 Miami Marlins. Polanco is slotted in the No. 4-hole in Miami's lineup when it faces Stephen Strasburg and Washington later today. Manager Mike Redmond talked about Polanco's ability to have a "professional at-bat" as the main reason for putting the third baseman in the cleanup spot. The other reason was, of course, that Redmond doesn't have any good options to protect Giancarlo Stanton. Polanco is 37-years old and his batting average and OPS have both plummeted the past three seasons. He also hasn't recorded an ISO above .100 since 2009 when he played for the Tigers. This decision simply magnifies just how bad the Marlins' offense will be in 2013 and the person who will suffer the most will be Stanton, who may hit 50 HRs, yet drive in 60 runs.
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