Mike Minor - After getting postponed on Monday, the Braves' Mike Minor took the hill Tuesday afternoon against the Rockies and gave up three ER over six innings with five strikeouts and five hits allowed. Entering Tuesday's outing, Minor had been enjoying the benefits of some early-season good fortune, specifically in the form of a 95% strand rate and 5.0% HR/FB mark. Minor struggled with the long ball last season (1.30 HR/9), so it seems unlikely he'll continue limiting HRs at his current pace. He also walked nearly three batters per game a season ago, but is posting just a 1.08 BB/9 through four starts in 2013. During his strong second half in 2012, Minor was able to limit HRs (0.72 HR/9) and walks (1.65 BB/9). He's trying to use the same formula this season, but I'm not confident he can maintain those peripherals over the course of the entire season. I'm expecting some regression in the coming weeks from Minor, who is a solid, but not overly dominant, starting pitcher in fantasy baseball.
Ross Detwiler - Through his first 20 innings of work entering yesterday's game against the Cardinals, Ross Detwiler had posted a 0.90 ERA in large part thanks to a 92% strand rate and 54% GB rate. On Tuesday, Detwiler logged six innings and yielded two ER while striking out two. For the past two seasons, mostly as a starting pitcher, Detwiler has recorded below average strikeout rates (sub 6.00 K/9), but has enjoyed BABIP marks of just .272 and .263. He's been able to post solid ERAs of 3.00 and 3.40, despite having xFIP marks of 4.08 and 4.34. I'm encouraged that Detwiler was able to improve his GB rate from 43% in 2011 to a strong 51% last season. That said, his early-season success doesn't seem sustainable because he doesn't miss enough bats. He faces the Reds in his next start on Sunday.
Jose Fernandez - Jose Fernandez drew an enticing matchup against the Twins on Tuesday afternoon, but the youngster labored through five innings, allowing four ER and eight baserunners to pick up his second loss in 2013. Fernandez has now made four starts in the big leagues this season and owns a 3.59 xFIP, although his ERA is 4.50. As expected, he's missing bats (8.55 K/9) and issuing a few too many free passes (3.60 BB/9), but overall, the early returns are positive. I'm encouraged by the 52% GB rate and 6% HR/FB mark, although I don't believe the latter is sustainable over the course of an entire season. Keep in mind, too, that while Fernandez is posting a strong K/9, his swinging strike percentage is just 7.8% and his chase rate is only 21%. Fernandez definitely has value as a matchup play and in one-year leagues, but expect inconsistency and few wins.
Carlos Villaneuva - Carlos Villanueva continued his excellent start to 2013 by holding the Reds to just one ER on three hits over seven innings. He struck out six and walked one batter. Villanueva has now thrown 28 innings in four starts and owns a 21:5 strikeout-to-walk rate to go along with a 1.29 ERA. He's struggled with the long ball (1.29 HR/9), but that's been offset by an unsustainably low .174 BABIP. There's no chance Villanueva can maintain that type of BABIP even with a strong GB rate of 56%. In deeper leagues, Villanueva can be a back end starter with above average whiff rates and an ERA round 4.00. If you can sell high, though, now's the time to do it as Villanueva is sure to experience regression soon.
Jason Grilli - The Pirates' Jason Grilli tallied his eighth save in as many chances by tossing a perfect inning and striking out two against the Phillies. For the season, Grilli now owns a perfect 0.00 ERA and 15:4 strikeout-to-walk rate. Last season, Grilli was impressive for the Pirates, posting a 13.81 K/9, 3.38 BB/9 and 2.68 xFIP. His swinging strike percentage of 14.4% was one of the top rates across the league and his 35% chase rate was equally impressive. Despite being 36-years old, Grilli is becoming one of the better closers in baseball and should be a strong source of strikeouts, ERA, WHIP and saves moving forward.
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